General Election 2024....

[deptfordmarmoset]

Find out, this time on Friday!

Electoral Calculus seems to have collapsed under the strain of people wanting to look at poll results. Most polls are giving Labour over 420 seats in total. Survation are going for 484 with the Tories getting 64 - only 3 more seats than the Lib Dems. They say their predictions are accurate to within 14 seats if they get the distribution right, otherwise 15+ seats.

YouGov have 431 Labour, 102 Con, 72 LIb Dem
More In Common have 430 Labour, 126 Con, 52 Lib Dem
FocalData have 444 Labour, 108 Con, 57 Lib Dem

All the Tories have left is scare tactics because they have found the word "supermajority" and think it sounds scary.

Electoral Calculus have this:

 

[Beebo]

Electoral Calculus have this:
View attachment 6321

That puts the Libs as the official opposition!

 

[ebikeerwidnes]

Several polls out today as it is the last day

most seem to be quite extreme in terms on results

can;t really see that coming true - if only due to Labour voters not bothering turning out as "it is already done and dusted" and hence loosing a couple of seats

but if these are anything like true it will be hilarious amazing to see

 

[Rusty Nails]

While I will always be happy to see a left leaning party in power after the past 14 years I am under no illusion that this is a sign that the country is moving to the left. People just want something different to the shower they have had for all that time. Left or right doesn't come into it that much, as shown by the Sun backing Starmer.

There are just a small number of issues that will be core to the result; prices, NHS and, sadly, immigration, and if Starmer doesn't show the tangible improvements people want to see in those things in the first term, despite his warnings that it will not be a quick solution to our problems, then there may well be a reaction in the future with Reform and its influence on Tory politics growing in strength.

We are not immune to the sort of stuff that is happening in France and other EU countries.

 

[multitool]

A poll has the Tories scraping a win in Clacton.

Maybe Labour withdrawing their candidate was a plan to stop Farage getting in the Commons.

 

[cookiemonster]

The Economist is backing Starmer now that he's "dragged Labour away from radical socialism"

So public ownership of our utilities, investment into schools and healthcare, no nuclear weapons, rejoining the SM and CU is all 'Radical Socialism?'

 

[cookiemonster]

Yes, it is noticeable that given the almost certain Labour/Starmer victory, the stock market is doing OK.

Woopee f*cking do!

That'll please people who have to use food banks or those that are homeless.

 

[BoldonLad]

Woopee f*cking do!

That'll please people who have to use food banks or those that are homeless.

I didn’t say it was a GOOD thing, merely observed that it was happening. Suggests the markets are cool with a Starmer victory. IMHO.

 

[multitool]

Woopee f*cking do!

That'll please people who have to use food banks or those that are homeless.

It's not a zero sum game, though, is it.

It's a market economy here which means that the markets matter. Ultimately if the markets do badly, we all do badly. Something amply demonstrated by Truss.

Food banks, charities, state provision all, ostensibly, are caused by a poor functioning economy and political choices. The political choices that we like are continent on strong markets.

 

[cookiemonster]

It's not a zero sum game, though, is it.

It's a market economy here which means that the markets matter. Ultimately if the markets do badly, we all do badly. Something amply demonstrated by Truss.

Food banks, charities, state provision all, ostensibly, are caused by a poor functioning economy and political choices. The political choices that we like are continent on strong markets.

I agree but my issue is the market being held up as the God that solves everything and nothing else matters except what the markets think. Us normal people doen't get a look in or a say.

The reason we have foodbanks, for example, is because of the fetishizing of these markets.

 

[multitool]

The reason we have foodbanks, for example, is because of the fetishizing of these markets.

I think it's a complex situation. Housing shortages means high rents. Food inflation means expensive food. Poor economic performance means lower tax receipts and political decisions to cut benefit payments instead of raising taxes.

Somewhere in that mix you might have shareholders prioritising their dividends over anything else at the expense of workers welfare.

But ultimately it's a market economy, not a planned one.

 

[cookiemonster]

I think it's a complex situation. Housing shortages means high rents. Food inflation means expensive food. Poor economic performance means lower tax receipts and political decisions to cut benefit payments instead of raising taxes.

Somewhere in that mix you might have shareholders prioritising their dividends over anything else at the expense of workers welfare.

But ultimately it's a market economy, not a planned one.

I would never advocate a planned economy, plenty of historical evidence to show that never works, but the Market solves everything’ policies we have is just as big a disaster.

Somewhere in the middle is where we need to be. Sadly, too many vested interests will ensure that never happens.

 

[multitool]

Sure, I agree. The market has no internal moral compass, and 'trickle down' economics is bullshît.

 

[ebikeerwidnes]

We are starting to build a list of seats where we want to see the results on telly

Starting with Clacton if Farage loosing
followed by most of the senior Tories - possibly with Rees-smug at the top

Lets hope Count Binface does well!

 

[Fab Foodie]

That puts the Libs as the official opposition!

That would be cool!