Oh no!! Brexit not going quite as well as hoped

[Rusty Nails]

I can see we are not going to get anywhere with this.. all I can say is... when I worked, I frequently had to make (contingency) plans when I did not know all of the variables. Saying "I don't know" was not an option. A Contingency Plan can always be made, it may not be a good plan, and, it may not cover the eventual outcomes, but, it can be made, and, it is still a Plan.

Part of my work, years ago, was working on forward planning for a large employer with 5000 workers. We would make our plans and have contingencies, but those contingencies were always going to be poorer substitutes than the full plans based on projected business conditions. Contingency plans are never as full as the main plans and are fall back provisions.

It was not as simple as the contingency plans we had for things like loss of IT, and you do not base your future plans on contingencies ... especially when you do not know the international regulations and conditions you will be working under.

As we can see now, it is not easy to just turn on a tap of skilled, experienced UK staff without many years of planning and backing from government. Perhaps we had got too reliant on a cheaper pool of foreign workers often to fill the jobs we couldn't seem to get Brits to fill, for various reasons, but everyone was to blame for that. People demanding cheaper goods and services, companies wanting a bigger pool of cheap labour with less training costs, and governments happy to go along with those things and not having to get too involved in better, but costly, training and education schemes.

I look forward to seeing the hordes of Brits rushing to become cleaners, hotel staff, baristas, farmworkers and meat factory workers. It will take a lot more than five, ten or 15 years and about 150 more trade deals as good as the Australia one, to get the country working and prospering fully outside the EU, as even that sage politician Jacob Rees-Mogg acknowledges.

 

[mudsticks]

for the last time… I am not trying to shift blame. I am merely saying that the outcome of brexit, in terms of labour supply and movement of goods was obvious to anyone with a brain.
Just because I am not Boris bashing of Mogg bashing every second word does not mean I think they are blameless.

They're not just 'blameless' they're wholly to blame.

I suppose in many ways I should award myself some foresight points for having built a fairly resilient business that doesn't rely on seasonal or imported labour, nor long supply chains, nor is dependant on very many external inputs.

That my crystal ball told me over twenty years ago that all this was coming.

At the time of course it seemed like a rather curious way to go about things.

When 'specialisation' and 'streamlined efficiency' and buying in inputs was everything.

"What on earth is she doing?"

Now all that 'going against the grain' makes sense.

But it was, maybe still is the ante thesis of how business 'should' be done.

OK I'll try not to trip over my self satisfaction as I go about the rest of my day now

 

[Pale Rider]

Quote me a post where I have supported brexit or Boris.

What you've posted is largely irrelevant.

The hardcore remainers on here sniff blood so will now keep at you for as long as it takes.

 

[BoldonLad]

What you've posted is largely irrelevant.

The hardcore remainers on here sniff blood so will now keep at you for as long as it takes.

Yes, it would appear there is no vaccination for "last worditess".

The Uk has been in decline for my whole life, increasingly, I am not surprised.

 

[Fab Foodie]

I'd be surprised if most enterprises were not trying to make some kind of contingency plans in the run-up to Brexit. Whether their forecast were accurate or viable logistically or financially is another issue.
For example I've stated that in my small area of big food we planned for tariffs across borders, interruptions to the flow of goods etc. as a feasible impact of Brexit in whatever form it finally took.
We 'simply' did this by moving the manufacture of key products for key EU customers from the UK to the 'EU'. We sourced alternative EU grown raw materials at a cost to UK farmers. We could do this as a big multinational because we already had infrastructure in place to do so.
Smaller companies could not. We started early and made a good fist of it. We know smaller competitors had to do this rapidly nearer the Brexit deadline and are struggling by still having to supply out of the UK whilst they establish a new supply system in the EU. If you're a @mudsticks sized operation you have less resource available to make big changes BUT that does not mean that you can't start to plan and mitigate for many or most likely scenarios, but there's a notable up-front cost to be borne in hedging bets that some organisations simply couldn't stand.

 

[Pale Rider]

Yes, it would appear there is no vaccination for "last worditess".

The Uk has been in decline for my whole life, increasingly, I am not surprised.

I suppose you missed the Jarrow March by a good few years, but I doubt our manor was very prosperous when you were a lad.

I take a more positive view of British business, which can normally be relied upon to adapt well to new circumstances.

There does seem to be an element of being caught on the hop in some cases.

 

[Rusty Nails]

What you've posted is largely irrelevant.

The hardcore remainers on here sniff blood so will now keep at you for as long as it takes.

Please. No-one is "sniffing blood" with Boldon Lad. At least he is putting up arguments that can be replied to, rather than just referring to hard-core Remainers dismissively.

Yes, it would appear there is no vaccination for "last worditess".

The Uk has been in decline for my whole life, increasingly, I am not surprised.

Are you talking about morally, socially or economically? The first two are subjective and everyone can have different views, but I believe that, although there have been peaks and troughs, overall the trend has been for the country to get much stronger economically for the past 50 years, even though we have, sadly, lost a lot of our engineering/manufacturing base.

I disagree with a lot of the arguments in your posts, but never the overall tone

 

[stowie]

Don’t disagree with any of that.

I didn’t vote for brexit or Boris.

Understood! In my opinion, Brexit was pushed over the line in the referendum by immigration dog-whistling, and Johnson will use exactly the same tactics to paper over the cracks and keep the Brexiteers onside. When London Mayor, Johnson espoused very liberal social policies including immigration. Now, he appears to be leading a government that is the most immigration unfriendly that I can remember. He is an utter daffodil without a shred of principle.

Where I think we differ is that I cannot get behind or try to make work a policy which I fundamentally disagree with and think is pandering to the worst aspects of human nature. I know Brexit is here to stay and needs to work at some level, but it is impossible to do that whilst this bunch are in power, and Brexiteers are being encouraged in their nostalgia fantasywank.

Johnson has been one of the figureheads of policy and direction which has made some of my friends so concerned about their place in the UK that they have left. I can never get behind a policy or government that has enabled this. I find them utterly repugnant.

 

[mudsticks]

Understood! In my opinion, Brexit was pushed over the line in the referendum by immigration dog-whistling, and Johnson will use exactly the same tactics to paper over the cracks and keep the Brexiteers onside. When London Mayor, Johnson espoused very liberal social policies including immigration. Now, he appears to be leading a government that is the most immigration unfriendly that I can remember. He is an utter daffodil without a shred of principle.

Where I think we differ is that I cannot get behind or try to make work a policy which I fundamentally disagree with and think is pandering to the worst aspects of human nature. I know Brexit is here to stay and needs to work at some level, but it is impossible to do that whilst this bunch are in power, and Brexiteers are being encouraged in their nostalgia fantasywank.

Johnson has been one of the figureheads of policy and direction which has made some of my friends so concerned about their place in the UK that they have left. I can never get behind a policy or government that has enabled this. I find them utterly repugnant.

Agree with all that, although I'm still trying with others to make the best of a bad job, and have some positive outcomes flow from a bad situation.

Make the most if an upheaval even, to put in place some potentially better measures.

Not because I want to 'get behind brexit' I think it was a terrible idea, poorly executed.

But because if we don't do something , then there will be worse to come, and opportunists with less well meaning motivations, will be able to take advantage.

Of course it may all come to naught, but it feels worthwhile to at least try.

 

[FishFright]

Quote me a post where I have supported brexit or Boris.

I was agreeing with you this time , I should have made that plain soz.

 

[Cirrus]

Quote me a post where I have supported brexit or Boris.

I think you have disturbed the acoustics of the echo chamber, imperfections need to be ironed out

 

[FishFright]

I think you have disturbed the acoustics of the echo chamber, imperfections need to be ironed out

That was my fault not BoltonLad's

 

[Unkraut]

Does anyone know what happened to @Andyinsig, rabid brexiter, "nothing would change, easiest deal in history, they need us more than, sunlit unicorns, return to empire", year after year after year. And then gone. Was he a Russian bot?

I've wondered that too. He seemed lean ever more to the right as time went on.

I'd like to know if he ever took out German citizenship because if he didn't and ever needs to change job he will find his qualifications no longer valid and will be at the back of the queue for jobs EU nationals having priority.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

Brexit was only about one thing. Immigration. Nothing else makes any sense. And it isn't about helping the poor.

Or immigration was the lever used to grab power.

 

[Milkfloat]

Yes, it would appear there is no vaccination for "last worditess".

I was planning on ignoring your last reply about it always being about our borders, then you spouted the bollocks above, so I guess I need to correct your previous statements.

I have gone back through my notes regarding my companies reactions and preparations.
It was Mays speech to Mansion House in March 2018 that really started to get any ball rolling, and then the meat of the information came in December. https://assets.publishing.service.g...ills-based-immigration-system-print-ready.pdf
This document put into writing the aims for 'skilled workers' and 'temporary short-term workers'. Skilled workers were largely defined by a £30K minimum salary and qualifications. However, there was also this text " We have noted, and agree with the MAC’s recommendation that workers with intermediate skills make a positive economic contribution. We accept that they should be given entry to the UK labour market if employers require them. In future it will be open to workers from all countries, not just the EU. " I am pretty sure that most people will agree that a Truck Driver earns over £30K and has 'intermediate skills'. I have no idea about a skilled crop picker, but I assume perhaps the same.

For the 'temporary' workers - it was based purely on need.
"However, we acknowledge that there are particular difficulties in recruiting staff in certain parts of the UK, particularly more rural and remote areas and regions. We also recognise that some sectors have built up a reliance on lower skilled workers from the EU, often for relatively short periods, such as those which require additional workers in the run up to Christmas. We recognise that employers in these areas require a period of time to change their ways of working once they have certainty about the shape of our future immigration system." Seasonal agricultural workers were explicitly called out and a pilot was proposed. The document does say that the UK should learn to get on it's own two feet but also states that aim is to be self sufficient by 2025.

This bill was finally only introduced on the 5th of March 2020, right before everyone's world got turned upside down with Covid. Based on this I would say it is pretty reasonable that farmers and freight firms kicked the ball down the road further, after all the Government said they could and the firms were struggling with the rest of the Brexit fun of red tape etc.

Feel free to 'have the last word' yourself, but I will usually jump back in if some factual errors are being made.