Oh no!! Brexit not going quite as well as hoped

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The Davis Downside Dossier
Davis famously said there would be no downsides to Brexit only considerable upsides

byYorkshire Bylines
1 October 2021

Photo credit Robert Sharp / englishpenLicensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.
In October 2016, David Davis, the then Brexit secretary, told the House of Commons that “there will be no downside to Brexit at all, and considerable upsides”.
Five years on there are plenty of downsides emerging, though the upsides are, to put it mildly, more elusive.
If you know of any specific upsides or downsides, please email editor@yorkshirebylines.co.uk with a link to a confirming story from a reputable source.
Downsides are growing fastest and are shown first but you can jump to the upsides below if you wish by clicking HERE.
We also maintain a list of ‘upsides’ that the government has claimed are benefits of Brexit, which are in fact fake. You can see this list under Brexit ‘benefit’ myths. Each one is debunked with verifiable evidence.
This list was last updated on 5 October 2021.
THE DOWNSIDES
288. Vegetables. Farmers are having to pay up to £30 an hour for picking vegetables as the shortage of workers raises the prospect of Britain having to import more fresh produce next year. The British Growers Association says that seasonal agricultural workers can now earn £1,000 a week, the equivalent of more than £50,000 a year pro rata. Jack Ward, CEO of the association said: “It’s been a complete nightmare, there’s intense competition for labour with all sorts of other industries and lots of reports of people poaching labour off farms to work in the hospitality industry.”
287. Daffodils. Daffodil growers have been forced to let nearly 300 million plants rot in the ground this year due to a lack of pickers caused by Brexit and the pandemic. Farmers warning that unless critical labour shortages are solved before next year’s harvest, many will stop growing the bulbs. Cornwall, which supplies nine out of ten daffodils grown in the UK has been particularly badly hit.
286. Expats. British expats are leaving Spain “in droves” as more stringent immigration rules apply after Brexit, The Daily Express report. UK citizens can now only visit Spain without a visa for up to three months for tourism and business purposes. Earlier this month, Britons who have been rejected for residency in Spain were given just 15 days to leave the country, and told they risk being classified as illegal.


Going well, isn't it. 😂🤣😂

 

[Bromptonaut]

I was planning on ignoring your last reply about it always being about our borders, then you spouted the bollocks above, so I guess I need to correct your previous statements.

I have gone back through my notes regarding my companies reactions and preparations.
It was Mays speech to Mansion House in March 2018 that really started to get any ball rolling, and then the meat of the information came in December. https://assets.publishing.service.g...ills-based-immigration-system-print-ready.pdf

That was of course May's take. Johnson went on beggaring about right up to Xmas 2020 chucking all sorts of objects and half arsed proposals around for business to think about.

 

[BoldonLad]

I'd be surprised if most enterprises were not trying to make some kind of contingency plans in the run-up to Brexit. Whether their forecast were accurate or viable logistically or financially is another issue.
For example I've stated that in my small area of big food we planned for tariffs across borders, interruptions to the flow of goods etc. as a feasible impact of Brexit in whatever form it finally took.
We 'simply' did this by moving the manufacture of key products for key EU customers from the UK to the 'EU'. We sourced alternative EU grown raw materials at a cost to UK farmers. We could do this as a big multinational because we already had infrastructure in place to do so.
Smaller companies could not. We started early and made a good fist of it. We know smaller competitors had to do this rapidly nearer the Brexit deadline and are struggling by still having to supply out of the UK whilst they establish a new supply system in the EU. If you're a @mudsticks sized operation you have less resource available to make big changes BUT that does not mean that you can't start to plan and mitigate for many or most likely scenarios, but there's a notable up-front cost to be borne in hedging bets that some organisations simply couldn't stand.

Was that almost agreement with my post some pages back?

 

[BoldonLad]

I was planning on ignoring your last reply about it always being about our borders, then you spouted the bollocks above, so I guess I need to correct your previous statements.

I have gone back through my notes regarding my companies reactions and preparations.
It was Mays speech to Mansion House in March 2018 that really started to get any ball rolling, and then the meat of the information came in December. https://assets.publishing.service.g...ills-based-immigration-system-print-ready.pdf
This document put into writing the aims for 'skilled workers' and 'temporary short-term workers'. Skilled workers were largely defined by a £30K minimum salary and qualifications. However, there was also this text " We have noted, and agree with the MAC’s recommendation that workers with intermediate skills make a positive economic contribution. We accept that they should be given entry to the UK labour market if employers require them. In future it will be open to workers from all countries, not just the EU. " I am pretty sure that most people will agree that a Truck Driver earns over £30K and has 'intermediate skills'. I have no idea about a skilled crop picker, but I assume perhaps the same.

For the 'temporary' workers - it was based purely on need.
"However, we acknowledge that there are particular difficulties in recruiting staff in certain parts of the UK, particularly more rural and remote areas and regions. We also recognise that some sectors have built up a reliance on lower skilled workers from the EU, often for relatively short periods, such as those which require additional workers in the run up to Christmas. We recognise that employers in these areas require a period of time to change their ways of working once they have certainty about the shape of our future immigration system." Seasonal agricultural workers were explicitly called out and a pilot was proposed. The document does say that the UK should learn to get on it's own two feet but also states that aim is to be self sufficient by 2025.

This bill was finally only introduced on the 5th of March 2020, right before everyone's world got turned upside down with Covid. Based on this I would say it is pretty reasonable that farmers and freight firms kicked the ball down the road further, after all the Government said they could and the firms were struggling with the rest of the Brexit fun of red tape etc.

Feel free to 'have the last word' yourself, but I will usually jump back in if some factual errors are being made.

1. Have I been insulting about your views?

2. I have no "factual" information as to a Truck Drivers earnings, but, elsewhere on CC, several people who claim to be HGV drivers (or ex-HGV drivers) claim that most are on minimum wage, if this is so, then earnings of "over £30K" would be difficult without breaking the driving hours laws, I would think?

3. So, how is the "self sufficiency" in agriculture going then?

4. Surely, the role of those in senior positions in Business (I am not talking about one man and his dog outfits) is to think about what the REAL outcome may be, and, not just believe what Politicians say, after all, do any of us actually TRUST politicians? In this particular example there was ample evidence that things were going badly, based on your own examples.

In general terms, I live in an area which voted leave by a massive margin. Among my numerous relations/friends/acquaintances, the two major reasons given were "Sovereignty" (ie passport colour, pint glasses and all that rubbish), and, Immigration. I find it very hard to believe that anyone with any sense did not see exactly where this would end up, once "leave" won. Now, it is possible of course that my relations/friends/acquaintances, are not typical, and, that the rest of the country is populated by higher minded individuals, but, if that is so, how did we get Brexit?

 

[BoldonLad]

Understood! In my opinion, Brexit was pushed over the line in the referendum by immigration dog-whistling, and Johnson will use exactly the same tactics to paper over the cracks and keep the Brexiteers onside. When London Mayor, Johnson espoused very liberal social policies including immigration. Now, he appears to be leading a government that is the most immigration unfriendly that I can remember. He is an utter daffodil without a shred of principle.

Where I think we differ is that I cannot get behind or try to make work a policy which I fundamentally disagree with and think is pandering to the worst aspects of human nature. I know Brexit is here to stay and needs to work at some level, but it is impossible to do that whilst this bunch are in power, and Brexiteers are being encouraged in their nostalgia fantasywank.

Johnson has been one of the figureheads of policy and direction which has made some of my friends so concerned about their place in the UK that they have left. I can never get behind a policy or government that has enabled this. I find them utterly repugnant.

You could be right. In my working life, a distant memory, I was a "solutions person", not a "nothing can be done" person. My solutions did not always work, as intended, or, indeed at all, but, I was always "in it to fix it". Perhaps, a good job we are not all the same, how boring would life be?

 

[Fab Foodie]

Was that almost agreement with my post some pages back?

Steady!

But yes, in some areas, the worst case scenarios could be planned and catered for.
In other areas, not so easily. I can imagine if some years before Brexit you tried to only employ UK citizens in your factory in preference to EU Nationals you'd be caught by discrimination laws, so planning to replace EU workers was not a a simple thing for most organisations.
Other companies like in banking could move key people around to maintain effectiveness in different geographies, but again, these are big bucks decisions which in many low margins businesses were only for the brave or the very certain.
Haulage could have been working on this many years ago.
Food supply chains could have started raising costs to be able to raise a UK crop workforce OR invest heavily in automation pre-brexit, but there's no interest in investing in this country of short-termism.

I've listened too many interviews over the Tory Conference period and frankly I wouldn't trust any of them to understand the economics of a Private school tuck-shop....
Trying to blame lack of investment in skilled UK workers, the lack of productivity improvement, lack of investment in capital equipment, etc as due to EU migrants is frankly silly, (yes they are a factor but not the primary factor). Even Boris saying (yesterday on the toady program) that because of Brexit we can now invest in better infrastructure for Truckers (such as lorry parks) is laughable when it comes from the very people who have been ruining the country for the last 11 years.

We could have had a high skilled, high productivity, higher wage nation years ago, but hey, who needs experts when you have buffoons in charge....

 

[mudsticks]

And now,

Lest we be accused of getting too serious about all this..

A light hearted musical interlude..


View: https://youtu.be/sgKmnbFdtTs

 

[BoldonLad]

Steady!

But yes, in some areas, the worst case scenarios could be planned and catered for.
In other areas, not so easily. I can imagine if some years before Brexit you tried to only employ UK citizens in your factory in preference to EU Nationals you'd be caught by discrimination laws, so planning to replace EU workers was not a a simple thing for most organisations.
Other companies like in banking could move key people around to maintain effectiveness in different geographies, but again, these are big bucks decisions which in many low margins businesses were only for the brave or the very certain.
Haulage could have been working on this many years ago.
Food supply chains could have started raising costs to be able to raise a UK crop workforce OR invest heavily in automation pre-brexit, but there's no interest in investing in this country of short-termism.

I've listened too many interviews over the Tory Conference period and frankly I wouldn't trust any of them to understand the economics of a Private school tuck-shop....
Trying to blame lack of investment in skilled UK workers, the lack of productivity improvement, lack of investment in capital equipment, etc as due to EU migrants is frankly silly, (yes they are a factor but not the primary factor). Even Boris saying (yesterday on the toady program) that because of Brexit we can now invest in better infrastructure for Truckers (such as lorry parks) is laughable when it comes from the very people who have been ruining the country for the last 11 years.

We could have had a high skilled, high productivity, higher wage nation years ago, but hey, who needs experts when you have buffoons in charge....

Sorry, I got carried away there.

 

[Pale Rider]

And now,

Lest we be accused of getting too serious about all this..

A light hearted musical interlude..


View: https://youtu.be/sgKmnbFdtTs

We need more red Brexit buses.

 

[Fab Foodie]

We need more red Brexit buses.

Boris likes buses....

 

[BoldonLad]

Boris likes buses....

I thought his speciality was bendy buses?

 

[icowden]

I am pretty sure that most people will agree that a Truck Driver earns over £30K and has 'intermediate skills'. I have no idea about a skilled crop picker, but I assume perhaps the same.

I'm not most people

The starting salary for an HGV driver is between £19,000 and £24,000 and can climb to as high as £45,000. The average for HGV drivers tends to be between £30,000 and £40,000, depending on which company you work for and how far you drive

So, yes and no. It may be that the shortage is in the under £30,000 category.
As for crop pickers:

Minimum wage in the UK is £8.91 (from 1st April 2021) and our workers can earn more depending on their individual role and performance. In 2020, the average weekly salary at Hall Hunter was £417.

Extrapolate that and even if the work were not seasonal a crop picker could only expect to earn £21k

 

[Rusty Nails]

I thought his speciality was bendy buses?

A bit like his bendy versions of the truth.

I know he was in favour of those bendy bananas those nasty EU people were going stop us selling.

And bending over backwards to get his brother and generous donors a peerage.

A trend is appearing there.

 

[Milkfloat]

1. Have I been insulting about your views?

2. I have no "factual" information as to a Truck Drivers earnings, but, elsewhere on CC, several people who claim to be HGV drivers (or ex-HGV drivers) claim that most are on minimum wage, if this is so, then earnings of "over £30K" would be difficult without breaking the driving hours laws, I would think?

3. So, how is the "self sufficiency" in agriculture going then?

4. Surely, the role of those in senior positions in Business (I am not talking about one man and his dog outfits) is to think about what the REAL outcome may be, and, not just believe what Politicians say, after all, do any of us actually TRUST politicians? In this particular example there was ample evidence that things were going badly, based on your own examples.

In general terms, I live in an area which voted leave by a massive margin. Among my numerous relations/friends/acquaintances, the two major reasons given were "Sovereignty" (ie passport colour, pint glasses and all that rubbish), and, Immigration. I find it very hard to believe that anyone with any sense did not see exactly where this would end up, once "leave" won. Now, it is possible of course that my relations/friends/acquaintances, are not typical, and, that the rest of the country is populated by higher minded individuals, but, if that is so, how did we get Brexit?

1. No, but you got all childish and insulting about getting the last word in.
2. It may have escaped your attention but the media was full of examples of £50k wages, even if that is someone taking on lots of overtime then £30k is very likely.
3. Not at all well, but the government stated that homegrown employees could wait.
4. It may have escaped your attention but not only did the government‘s story change from week to week, but then we were plunged into a global pandemic that threatened the very existence of many of these companies.

 

[BoldonLad]

1. No, but you got all childish and insulting about getting the last word in.
2. It may have escaped your attention but the media was full of examples of £50k wages, even if that is someone taking on lots of overtime then £30k is very likely.
3. Not at all well, but the government stated that homegrown employees could wait.
4. It may have escaped your attention but not only did the government‘s story change from week to week, but then we were plunged into a global pandemic that threatened the very existence of many of these companies.

1. I made no reference to you in my exchange with Paley, you were expressing a contrary view which is fine, not repeating the same old stuff.
2. Yeah, and, we all believe everything we read/see/hear in/from the media, don't we?
3. As I have repeatedly said, "leaders of industry" should know better than to believe everything that comes out of Politicians mouth, even us lowly CCers know better than that
4. I did agree that the Pandemic was an additional complicating factor, but, that did come late to the party. If the Pandemic is to be used as an mitigating factor for Industry, surely it is also a mitigating factor for Government? If, for example, additional HGV drivers were to be recruited/trained, they would presumably come from the ranks of the "economically inactive", otherwise, they would not be "additional" would they, so, I do not really get the connection between furlough and recruiting additional staff, (as mentioned earlier).

I honestly do not see what your problem is, I am not saying (any) Industry is 100% responsible, nor am I absolving the Government from blame, all I am saying is that some very well paid Captains of Industry, appear to have been caught napping.

If you are saying Brexit was/is a disastrous choice, if you are saying current Government are shambolic etc etc, then, yes, yes and yes again, but, that does not (IMHO) absolve industry and everyone else from trying to do the best they can, rather than feed the doom and gloom.