Oh no!! Brexit not going quite as well as hoped

[FishFright]

Sounds great. Now how do we trade them with the largest trading block in the world, given that we haven't got a proper trading relationship?
How do we get them to purchase our semi-conductors instead of from countries that they already have trading relationships with?
How do we make our semi-conductors cheap enough given the reliance on sweat shops and slave labour in the East?

In a silicon foundry ?

 

[Archie_tect]

Sounds great. Now how do we trade them with the largest trading block in the world, given that we haven't got a proper trading relationship?
How do we get them to purchase our semi-conductors instead of from countries that they already have trading relationships with?
How do we make our semi-conductors cheap enough given the reliance on sweat shops and slave labour in the East?

Is that an ecumenical question... we have to find any way of making the EU 'need us more than we need them', as David Daies was so fond of saying, or we will forever be a backward, third world entity parked off the NW coast of Europe. If we haven't got anything to offer the EU we're on a downward spiral to economic and social ruin. [This is my opinion- there are other opinions available].

 

[Archie_tect]

Perhaps, one day, those in power may suggest we join an economic union, somewhere to the SE of Dover, if Dominic Rabb can find it.

 

[FishFright]

Perhaps, one day, those in power may suggest we join an economic union, somewhere to the SE of Dover, if Dominic Rabb can find it.

Raab looks at the globe and wonders why the Faroe Islands are so important economically.

 

[stowie]

isn't the shortage of semi-conductors world-wide the reason why there are so many delays in production for everything using one and why prices are rising so rapidly? Sounds like a good reason for the UK Government to invest in building a factory and the infrastructure to have a source here regardless of where we get them from now. I'd rather they built a semi-conductor factory rather than the next Trident.

Yes. The implications for the semiconductor shortage is pretty stark. If things are going to be as bad in 2022 as some think then we will see some big effects in the next 12 months. To the point that I am wondering if it could trigger a global downturn or even recession. Companies will go to the wall as their cashflow won't support a sustained production outage. On the other hand, the industry is a crazy one - periods of supply followed by a sudden switch to oversupply with a whole set of other problems. I don't think anyone can say with any assurance what the next 12 months hold, but the consensus is continuing shortage which is still getting worse. Some production is relying on chips already in the market, but this is drying up rapidly.

Fabs are a huge investment - even large companies are betting big on each new facility. Cutting edge fabs are $10bn+. Intel reckon their new manufacturing hub in the US will have a total cost of between $80B-$160B. It should be noted that cutting edge isn't the only game in town. A lot of semi chips don't need the latest processes because the economies of scale don't work or the technology is unsuitable for the chip functionality. So it isn't necessarily just chasing the latest process node.

We don't need the government building fabs. We need to have the political and economic climate generated by government for the UK to be an attractive place for companies to invest the many billions required. One of the biggest and most advanced semiconductor manufacturers on the planet has just said that we haven't got this despite the UK being attractive for semiconductor investment in a number of other factors (eg. access to water, infrastructure, geology, academic excellence etc.). This should be a bit of a wake up call. It won't be, but it should.

 

[Archie_tect]

If the Gov't pays companies enough [sorry- offer sufficient incentives for inward investment backed by adequate safeguards] they will come.
Mothball HS2 and Trident for a few years, that'll provide the funds.

 

[steve292]

No such thing as society!

The ultimate aim of Thatcherism. We'll all be too busy fighting our own corners to notice the profiteering and asset stripping taking place.

 

[BoldonLad]

Yes. The implications for the semiconductor shortage is pretty stark. If things are going to be as bad in 2022 as some think then we will see some big effects in the next 12 months. To the point that I am wondering if it could trigger a global downturn or even recession. Companies will go to the wall as their cashflow won't support a sustained production outage. On the other hand, the industry is a crazy one - periods of supply followed by a sudden switch to oversupply with a whole set of other problems. I don't think anyone can say with any assurance what the next 12 months hold, but the consensus is continuing shortage which is still getting worse. Some production is relying on chips already in the market, but this is drying up rapidly.

Fabs are a huge investment - even large companies are betting big on each new facility. Cutting edge fabs are $10bn+. Intel reckon their new manufacturing hub in the US will have a total cost of between $80B-$160B. It should be noted that cutting edge isn't the only game in town. A lot of semi chips don't need the latest processes because the economies of scale don't work or the technology is unsuitable for the chip functionality. So it isn't necessarily just chasing the latest process node.

We don't need the government building fabs. We need to have the political and economic climate generated by government for the UK to be an attractive place for companies to invest the many billions required. One of the biggest and most advanced semiconductor manufacturers on the planet has just said that we haven't got this despite the UK being attractive for semiconductor investment in a number of other factors (eg. access to water, infrastructure, geology, academic excellence etc.). This should be a bit of a wake up call. It won't be, but it should.

Am I right in thinking that, over the past few years, Germany has managed to attract some large scale Chinese investment in this area?

 

[newfhouse]

One of the biggest and most advanced semiconductor manufacturers on the planet has just said that we haven't got this despite the UK being attractive for semiconductor investment in a number of other factors (eg. access to water, infrastructure, geology, academic excellence etc.). This should be a bit of a wake up call. It won't be, but it should.

Let’s all watch as they blame this on COVID.

 

[stowie]

Am I right in thinking that, over the past few years, Germany has managed to attract some large scale Chinese investment in this area?

Not sure. Some German semiconductor companies have been investing heavily in China fabs (so the other way around). The trade issues and technology transfer restrictions seem to be hampering investment either way.

China has been pouring $$$$ into semiconductor manufacturing. They are not comfortable with the major manufacturing centres being Taiwan and the US - hardly countries with really friendly relations currently. From my understanding the results have been mixed even with the Chinese state backing. SMIC is probably the most notable. One problem is that SMIC is on 28 and 14nm processes - which is mainstream technology but not cutting edge. To get to 7nm and below they need equipment from companies currently unable to sell to them due to US export restrictions (eg. ASML based in Netherlands). There is a major trade battle going on in the background it seems. It may not be quite as grim as all that - 28/14nm covers a lot of semiconductors with 7nm being really high end product such as NVIDIA/mobile phone processors and so on. But I guess China don't want to rely on external fabs for any of this.

 

[stowie]

Let’s all watch as they blame this on COVID.

My bet is they will simply ignore it. I wonder if it will even come up in interviews and if it does they will waffle around "global Britain" until the interviewer moves along.

 

[the snail]

Interesting interview with a turkey farmer. He says the industry was warning the govt 2 years ago re. labour shortages, asking for clarity. They needed to arrange workers by June, so now it would be too late even if they could find anyone. He also explains how the industry has changed in 30 years, why there is no local workforce, and how his business is set to shrink back to a cottage industry. If you do manage to find a turkey for xmas, likely it will have come from France or Poland. #brexittriumph.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4qDNIeC8Md8

 

[Bromptonaut]

Another consequence of Brexit is that we're no longer parties to EGNOS, the EU's system to improve the accuracy of GPS.

One effect of this is to increase the visibility minima for precision approaches at airports without the full panoply of ground based Instrument Landing Systems:

https://www.flyer.co.uk/shapps-confirms-no-lpv-approaches-after-june/

Not just minor airfields either, Southampton airport is one affected.

 

[newfhouse]

https://www.flyer.co.uk/shapps-confirms-no-lpv-approaches-after-june/

The comments section of that article reads like CycleChat, with patient knowledgable types having to explain the facts of life to knee-jerk EU blamers.

 

[mudsticks]

Interesting interview with a turkey farmer. He says the industry was warning the govt 2 years ago re. labour shortages, asking for clarity. They needed to arrange workers by June, so now it would be too late even if they could find anyone. He also explains how the industry has changed in 30 years, why there is no local workforce, and how his business is set to shrink back to a cottage industry. If you do manage to find a turkey for xmas, likely it will have come from France or Poland. #brexittriumph.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4qDNIeC8Md8

Why should I care ??

I don't like turkey anyway.