Starmer's vision quest

[First Aspect]

Corbyns party will be like Alba in Scotland, which got a lot more press coverage than it's popularity merited, because of the profile of the person behind it. In fact, that's what happened to Reform.

I agree that Corbyn's Cadbury party isn't going anywhere, because Reform are already occupying the wildly generous unrealistic promises policy space. And whereas Corbyn will demonize the rich, Farage has demonized immigrants. The latter resonates more at the moment.

 

[icowden]

I agree that Corbyn's Cadbury party isn't going anywhere, because Reform are already occupying the wildly generous unrealistic promises policy space. And whereas Corbyn will demonize the rich, Farage has demonized immigrants. The latter resonates more at the moment.

I suspect that it would achieve what Reform achieved in last year's election - a split of the Labour vote so that neither party does well. The problem is that in just one year, Reform have effectively destroyed the COnservatives (as far as polling is concerned).

ElectoralCalculus predicts as follows (i've excluded the NI MPs):

Current Prediction: Reform short 1 of majority​

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	24.4%	121	18.2%	18	41	170
LAB	34.7%	412	22.9%	58	145	301
LIB	12.6%	72	13.7%	29	67	95
Reform	14.7%	5	29.4%	147	325	433
Green	6.9%	4	9.3%	3	5	28
SNP	2.6%	9	2.8%	11	40	44
PlaidC	0.7%	4	0.8%	2	4	8
Other	3.5%	5	2.8%	0	5	8

They are very close to having replaced the Conservative Party who are on the road to oblivion. A split in the Labour vote would see them on (I imagine) something like 8% corbynites and 14% starmerites or vice versa. Neither will win and both will lose significantly. The official opposition would be the Lib Dems.

If we look at last year's prediction it was Con: 61, Lab 470, Lib 71, Reform 7, Green 3, SNP 15, Plaid 3
The actual results were Con: 121, Lab 411, Lib 72, Reform 5, Green 4, SNP 9, Plaid 4
So Conservatives tend to be shy and Labour's prediction was over-optimistic as was Reform's.

I suspect that the next general election (if positions haven't changed) will be a hung parliament or coalition - probably between Reform and the Tories.

 

[Pblakeney]

I suspect that the next general election (if positions haven't changed) will be a hung parliament or coalition - probably between Reform and the Tories.

What could possibly go wrong? 😂

 

[Psamathe]

Reform have effectively destroyed the COnservatives (as far as polling is concerned).

I think Ms Badenoch deserves some, maybe most of the credit for that achievement. Just like we wonder if Trump really is a Russian sleeper agent, makes you wonder is Ms Badenoch is really a covert Labour or Reform operative.

Ian

 

[icowden]

I think Ms Badenoch deserves some, maybe most of the credit for that achievement.

I think you are overgenerous and miss the sterling work of Johnson, Truss and Sunak.

 

[BoldonLad]

I suspect that it would achieve what Reform achieved in last year's election - a split of the Labour vote so that neither party does well. The problem is that in just one year, Reform have effectively destroyed the COnservatives (as far as polling is concerned).

ElectoralCalculus predicts as follows (i've excluded the NI MPs):

Current Prediction: Reform short 1 of majority​

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	24.4%	121	18.2%	18	41	170
LAB	34.7%	412	22.9%	58	145	301
LIB	12.6%	72	13.7%	29	67	95
Reform	14.7%	5	29.4%	147	325	433
Green	6.9%	4	9.3%	3	5	28
SNP	2.6%	9	2.8%	11	40	44
PlaidC	0.7%	4	0.8%	2	4	8
Other	3.5%	5	2.8%	0	5	8

They are very close to having replaced the Conservative Party who are on the road to oblivion. A split in the Labour vote would see them on (I imagine) something like 8% corbynites and 14% starmerites or vice versa. Neither will win and both will lose significantly. The official opposition would be the Lib Dems.

If we look at last year's prediction it was Con: 61, Lab 470, Lib 71, Reform 7, Green 3, SNP 15, Plaid 3
The actual results were Con: 121, Lab 411, Lib 72, Reform 5, Green 4, SNP 9, Plaid 4
So Conservatives tend to be shy and Labour's prediction was over-optimistic as was Reform's.

I suspect that the next general election (if positions haven't changed) will be a hung parliament or coalition - probably between Reform and the Tories.

Doesn't it all depend on if Jeremy can achieve media coverage out of all proportion to his actual importance (in short, displace Nigel in that role).

 

[icowden]

Doesn't it all depend on if Jeremy can achieve media coverage out of all proportion to his actual importance (in short, displace Nigel in that role).

Well of course - but I suspect he'll have no trouble attracting the Citizen Smith types and possibly some of the Trade Unions.

 

[Psamathe]

Well of course - but I suspect he'll have no trouble attracting the Citizen Smith types and possibly some of the Trade Unions.

My understanding is a fair number of MPs have small majorities so might not take many "Citizen Smiths" for Labour to lose a constituency even though the Fruit & Nut candidate doesn't get elected either.

Ian

 

[briantrumpet]

Might be worth reminding ourselves that the next election is four years away.

 

[Pblakeney]

Might be worth reminding ourselves that the next election is four years away.

Quite. You’d have to be a complete fool to call an early election while things are not going well.

 

[BoldonLad]

Might be worth reminding ourselves that the next election is four years away.

Quite, and, as Harold Wilson said, “a week is a long time in politics”.

 

[briantrumpet]

Quite, and, as Harold Wilson said, “a week is a long time in politics”.

How's the head this morning? 🤔😉

 

[briantrumpet]

Quite. You’d have to be a complete fool to call an early election while things are not going well.

It's worth remembering that Thatcher's polling was terrible in 1980, though, admittedly, there were only two viable parties then.

 

[Pblakeney]

It's worth remembering that Thatcher's polling was terrible in 1980, though, admittedly, there were only two viable parties then.

Didn't call the election until 1983 after the Falklands though. 🤔
Or, is that your point? Things change.

 

[First Aspect]

Didn't call the election until 1983 after the Falklands though. 🤔
Or, is that your point? Things change.

Good point, there's ample opportunity for a war right now. Tricky part is finding a popular one.