Starmer's vision quest

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First Aspect

Senior Member
Corbyns party will be like Alba in Scotland, which got a lot more press coverage than it's popularity merited, because of the profile of the person behind it. In fact, that's what happened to Reform.

I agree that Corbyn's Cadbury party isn't going anywhere, because Reform are already occupying the wildly generous unrealistic promises policy space. And whereas Corbyn will demonize the rich, Farage has demonized immigrants. The latter resonates more at the moment.
 

icowden

Shaman
I agree that Corbyn's Cadbury party isn't going anywhere, because Reform are already occupying the wildly generous unrealistic promises policy space. And whereas Corbyn will demonize the rich, Farage has demonized immigrants. The latter resonates more at the moment.
I suspect that it would achieve what Reform achieved in last year's election - a split of the Labour vote so that neither party does well. The problem is that in just one year, Reform have effectively destroyed the COnservatives (as far as polling is concerned).

ElectoralCalculus predicts as follows (i've excluded the NI MPs):

Current Prediction: Reform short 1 of majority​

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesLow SeatsPred SeatsHigh Seats
CON24.4%12118.2%1841170
LAB34.7%41222.9%58145301
LIB12.6%7213.7%296795
Reform14.7%529.4%147325433
Green6.9%49.3%3528
SNP2.6%92.8%114044
PlaidC0.7%40.8%248
Other3.5%52.8%058

They are very close to having replaced the Conservative Party who are on the road to oblivion. A split in the Labour vote would see them on (I imagine) something like 8% corbynites and 14% starmerites or vice versa. Neither will win and both will lose significantly. The official opposition would be the Lib Dems.

If we look at last year's prediction it was Con: 61, Lab 470, Lib 71, Reform 7, Green 3, SNP 15, Plaid 3
The actual results were Con: 121, Lab 411, Lib 72, Reform 5, Green 4, SNP 9, Plaid 4
So Conservatives tend to be shy and Labour's prediction was over-optimistic as was Reform's.

I suspect that the next general election (if positions haven't changed) will be a hung parliament or coalition - probably between Reform and the Tories.
 

Psamathe

Über Member
Reform have effectively destroyed the COnservatives (as far as polling is concerned).
I think Ms Badenoch deserves some, maybe most of the credit for that achievement. Just like we wonder if Trump really is a Russian sleeper agent, makes you wonder is Ms Badenoch is really a covert Labour or Reform operative.

Ian
 

BoldonLad

Old man on a bike. Not a member of a clique.
Location
South Tyneside
I suspect that it would achieve what Reform achieved in last year's election - a split of the Labour vote so that neither party does well. The problem is that in just one year, Reform have effectively destroyed the COnservatives (as far as polling is concerned).

ElectoralCalculus predicts as follows (i've excluded the NI MPs):

Current Prediction: Reform short 1 of majority​

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesLow SeatsPred SeatsHigh Seats
CON24.4%12118.2%1841170
LAB34.7%41222.9%58145301
LIB12.6%7213.7%296795
Reform14.7%529.4%147325433
Green6.9%49.3%3528
SNP2.6%92.8%114044
PlaidC0.7%40.8%248
Other3.5%52.8%058

They are very close to having replaced the Conservative Party who are on the road to oblivion. A split in the Labour vote would see them on (I imagine) something like 8% corbynites and 14% starmerites or vice versa. Neither will win and both will lose significantly. The official opposition would be the Lib Dems.

If we look at last year's prediction it was Con: 61, Lab 470, Lib 71, Reform 7, Green 3, SNP 15, Plaid 3
The actual results were Con: 121, Lab 411, Lib 72, Reform 5, Green 4, SNP 9, Plaid 4
So Conservatives tend to be shy and Labour's prediction was over-optimistic as was Reform's.

I suspect that the next general election (if positions haven't changed) will be a hung parliament or coalition - probably between Reform and the Tories.

Doesn't it all depend on if Jeremy can achieve media coverage out of all proportion to his actual importance (in short, displace Nigel in that role).
 
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icowden

Shaman
Doesn't it all depend on if Jeremy can achieve media coverage out of all proportion to his actual importance (in short, displace Nigel in that role).

Well of course - but I suspect he'll have no trouble attracting the Citizen Smith types and possibly some of the Trade Unions.
 

Psamathe

Über Member
Well of course - but I suspect he'll have no trouble attracting the Citizen Smith types and possibly some of the Trade Unions.
My understanding is a fair number of MPs have small majorities so might not take many "Citizen Smiths" for Labour to lose a constituency even though the Fruit & Nut candidate doesn't get elected either.

Ian
 
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briantrumpet

Veteran
Might be worth reminding ourselves that the next election is four years away.
 
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