These Covid Polices Are Going Well .....

[Craig the cyclist]

Strangely, many chose to carry on working to pay the rent and feed their children rather than trying to survive on SSP.

Not everyone was on furlough. I can’t link to them but there were definitely posts highlighting the pitifully low rate of SSP.

But during the lockdowns, people were not allowed to just phone in sick and claim SSP. They were at work and working, or on furlough. I am sorry, I don't get where SSP comes in to it?

'Here' is the big chart below the words, 'see here'

And yet there are still apparently large variations between the outcomes in those societies.

Which pretty much brings us back to our starting point of you can't really compare countries as they all took very different decisions at different times.

 

[newfhouse]

Here' is the big chart below the words

What was the source of your big chart?

Which pretty much brings us back to our starting point of you can't really compare countries as they all took very different decisions at different times.

The variation in outcomes of those differing decisions is the whole point of the comparison.

 

[Craig the cyclist]

What was the source of your big chart?

The Health Foundation.

The variation in outcomes of those differing decisions is the whole point of the comparison.

But if Germany instigated testing earlier, Italy locked down earlier, England introduced the vaccine earlier, China locked down viciously, South Korea made incomers go to a hotel for 3 weeks and NZ shut it's airports, who did best?

 

[newfhouse]

who did best

The country with the best balance of death and disruption, obviously. Even subjective judgements need comparable data.

 

[Craig the cyclist]

The country with the best balance of death and disruption, obviously. Even subjective judgements need comparable data.

So, when does that count start and finish?

And how on earth do you balance death and disruption? If you are dead, your life has been pretty disrupted. If you are alive it hasn't and everything else is a minor inconvenience compared to be being dead..

 

[newfhouse]

So, when does that count start and finish?

And how on earth do you balance death and disruption?

Start should be easy, finish is a bit more complicated. I think it is reasonable for us to ask how we’re doing so far even if we think it likely that other countries will eventually exceed our current misery toll.

Edit: just seen your edit.
The balance is a judgement but there’s no avoiding making it.

 

[Rusty Nails]

There have been some some spike in death rates over the previous 5 years, especially in rich, industrialised countries weirdly! See here
View attachment 144

The key points from that Health Foundation Report, rather than just some graphs are relevant:

"Key points

• Rankings are satisfying and, at their best, help us to compare performance – understanding who is best, who is worst and, most importantly, why. However, these comparisons are also fraught with risks. Countries vary, and simply changing your outcome measure can radically alter who performed ‘best’ or ‘worst’. To some extent, we can make league tables say what we want them to say.
• Excess deaths are generally agreed to be one of the fairest ways of comparing the impact of the pandemic on mortality. However, even here, tweaks to our measurement can change our conclusions, though not our overall rankings.
• Our first measure compares the wealthy countries of the G7, across the period March 2020 to February 2021, looking at excess deaths as a proportion of the expected number of annual deaths. Using this measure, the US is the worst performer. They have around 25% more deaths than would be expected. The US is followed by the UK, Italy, France and Canada. Germany and Japan have fared best.
• For this comparison we base our ‘expected’ deaths on the average of deaths in the years 2015–19. But in this time period the US, Canada and Japan have had rapidly rising deaths. Taking an average does not take account of this rising mortality, and therefore leads us to overestimate excess deaths.
• When we calculate excess deaths based on trends in deaths, rather than just averages, the US’s comparative performance ‘improves’, and Japan moves to having ‘negative’ excess deaths – fewer deaths than would be expected. The overall ranking, with the US and UK being the worst performers, remains the same."

 

[newfhouse]

understanding who is best, who is worst and, most importantly, why

This.

 

[Craig the cyclist]

The key points from that Health Foundation Report, rather than just some graphs are relevant

Which is why I have previously said this....

Don't get me wrong, excess deaths is by far the better measure, and the UK still comes out in the top 3 or 4 however it is cut, but the measure can be slewed considerably by a minor data set change.

 

[Craig the cyclist]

This.

You don't seem to want to hear it when I say it, so maybe someone else saying will help? The Health Foundation say this in relation to the comparison thing.......

However, these comparisons are also fraught with risks. Countries vary, and simply changing your outcome measure can radically alter who performed ‘best’ or ‘worst’. To some extent, we can make league tables say what we want them to say.

It is simply too naive to say 'let's compare', there are simply too many different things to compare I am afraid!

 

[newfhouse]

You don't seem to want to hear it when I say it, so maybe someone else saying will help? The Health Foundation say this in relation to the comparison thing.......


It is simply too naive to say 'let's compare', there are simply too many different things to compare I am afraid!

I’m listening very carefully and I found RN’s post so useful I gave it a like.

I remain unconvinced that saying “it’s all too complicated” is the best way forward.

 

[Deleted member 49]

I’m listening very carefully and I found RN’s post so useful I gave it a like.

I remain unconvinced that saying “it’s all too complicated” is the best way forward.

Maybe try the bury your head in the sand and we did our best approach ?

 

[Craig the cyclist]

I’m listening very carefully and I found RN’s post so useful I gave it a like.

I think you are too focused on who says something, rather than what they say. I have said all the same things as Rusty, and you have disagreed with all of it. Rusty quotes someone else, and you like the post and find it useful

I remain unconvinced that saying “it’s all too complicated” is the best way forward.

You can remain unconvinced, but you will never find what you are looking for in a proper sense.

Obviously you will be able to find comparisons that you can use to say the government are self-gratification artists, but you will never find real, 'who did best' data.

Like I said, Germany introduced testing before England, but England now does more testing than France, so who is best?
Italy locked down before anyone, but New Zealand locked down completely, who did best?
Sweden didn't lock down at all, but England has the fastest vaccine rollout, who did best

What I suspect you really want is to compare England's approach to the best performers in each individual area, but not England's approach overall to another single country, or even take a single parameter and compare it across all countries. You really want to cherry pick and say they did worse than there in that, and worse than there in the other.

 

[newfhouse]

I think you are too focused on who says something, rather than what they say. I have said all the same things as Rusty, and you have disagreed with all of it.

I haven’t disagreed based on the source but I admit I have asked some open questions. Sorry if it feels personal.

What might that be?

Feel free to explain the flaws in my idea

Are you able to elaborate?

I'm not sure what this means.

Are you able to say more?

 

[Rusty Nails]

“The overall ranking, with the US and UK being the worst performers, remains the same."

This is the important bit from that report. anything else is just dancing on the head of a pin. Our performance, wrt to loss of life and infections, for a wealthy, advanced island nation has been abysmal.

I don’t believe Brits are intrinsically better or worse wrt to discipline or independence of mind, than any other nationality, and our scientists any cleverer or not, so a major cause of our terrible performance has to be the way the government, throughout the whole pandemic, has managed it.