War with Russia

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Deleted member 121

Guest
I already explained why what Taiwan (or HK) separatists want is irrelevant – do give reasons if you disagree. Regarding the “crackdown”, any objective assessment would have concluded the Chinese and (incompetent) HK leaders acted with exceptional restraint – nobody was killed while one died every 3 days on average for 30 years during the Troubles, never mind police violence in US. Whether the Taiwanese dislike the outcome or not, continued chaos would have been the only alternative. Meanwhile:

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Supporting rioters is actually a breach of the Westphalian system enshrined in UN Charter – namely non-interference in domestic affairs of other states - same set of rules that make McCain / Nuland’s actions in Kiev AND Putin’s invasion illegal (and scot-free).



Semiconductors are the least of the world’s worry if there is a hot war. In a cold war, countries not sanctioning Russia sure aren’t going to sanction China - their biggest trade partner:

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Those figures also prove you have it backwards – we are far more dependent on China than the other way round. We also have the US to thank for turning Russia, Iran, Saudi and numerous countries outside the West East. Even Europe, Scholz brought 12 top CEOs to Beijing, Macron brought 50 today. Do you think they or China want war of any kind?

It is unfortunate that war has become a Five Eyes obsession. Status quo is clearly inconvenient and unacceptable to the US, hence the never-ending shite-stirring. Problem is world manufacturing, transport infrastructures and logistics all emanate from one country with little prospect of meaningful change for decades, if ever. Meanwhile the perfect storm of low investment, Covid, money printing, and own goals with the war have already stoked our inflation and interest rates to levels not seen for decades. What could possibly go wrong with decoupling?

I believe the US led initiative to contain China by weaponising high end semiconductors is too little too late. What the initiative will do, is to incense and turbocharge a society delivering 8 times more STEM graduates, and the world’s highest PISA rating. With the current state of play in technology, and a strategy not exactly finding favour with most countries, do you think our leaders have thought through which direction containment could end up applying in practice?



I watched it, unfortunately. It is perfectly encapsulated by its concluding remark, i.e.: “The last 7 years has turned most Taiwanese against re-unification with the Mainland, China is running out of options to solve its Taiwan problem peacefully.”

Does it not insult your intelligence, when even a moron could tell time is on China’s side? Also in terms of incentive, unlike Xi the US wouldn't care less if Chinese ending up killing Chinese. The Palestinians have been in dire need of statehood and rescue from genocide for decades - why don't US/UK start there? You might want to watch this and then re-watch the documentary if you could stomach it – it might just open your eyes to how our propaganda against China works.



What free pass? Do you mean the Russian gas pumping through Ukraine right now? Or are you talking about the energy merry go round via Asia?

US' and friends’ problem, is their highly selective outrage. It is doubly embarrassing when (like you?) they get on a high horse telling others off for not being as outraged as them, given US’ long list of war and other crimes, including in Cuba today, ironically.

Except for those who think history only began on 24/2/22, it is obvious Ukraine must bear responsibility for being a principal author of their tragedy. Anybody who disagrees should try this thought experiment - if your child must live in a lawless neighbourhood, would you want them to join one of the warring gangs?

That brings us to today’s news*: “US opposes offering Ukraine a road map to Nato membership”. “Nato in 2008 agreed that Ukraine would at some point become a member, but has not advanced that language since then. At that time, it was the US who called for Nato to grant Ukraine a concrete accession timetable”. So, psych them up for a fight, and now no path to membership without fighting to the last Ukrainian if necessary. You couldn’t make it up! The Taiwanese must be thrilled!

* if the paywall stops you just google "US opposes offering Ukraine a road map to Nato membership" from an incognito/private window of your browser and hit the ft link.

 

stowie

Active Member
I already explained why what Taiwan (or HK) separatists want is irrelevant – do give reasons if you disagree. Regarding the “crackdown”, any objective assessment would have concluded the Chinese and (incompetent) HK leaders acted with exceptional restraint – nobody was killed while one died every 3 days on average for 30 years during the Troubles, never mind police violence in US. Whether the Taiwanese dislike the outcome or not, continued chaos would have been the only alternative. Meanwhile:

Taiwan is an advanced democracy. If China wants to use peaceful means to integrate Taiwan into PRC then it will need a majority of the Taiwan population to be in agreement, at the very least it seems vanishingly unlikely that they would vote in a reunification party in the current climate.

If China embarks on reunification militarily then of course it matters less. But then China have the external reactions to this action to factor in at that time. Plus the real possibility of a heavily armed insurgency for years that won't be anywhere near as easy to quell as protesters in a city-state.

Semiconductors are the least of the world’s worry if there is a hot war. In a cold war, countries not sanctioning Russia sure aren’t going to sanction China - their biggest trade partner:

Semiconductors are why Taiwan is hot property. Speaking rather brutally, if China invaded a Taiwan that didn't control semiconductor production, the West would probably grumble, impose some kind of sanctions but go no further. Put the critical components for all national, government and military infrastructure in the hands of the Chinese? That is a different story altogether.

Those figures also prove you have it backwards – we are far more dependent on China than the other way round. We also have the US to thank for turning Russia, Iran, Saudi and numerous countries outside the West East. Even Europe, Scholz brought 12 top CEOs to Beijing, Macron brought 50 today. Do you think they or China want war of any kind?

It is unfortunate that war has become a Five Eyes obsession. Status quo is clearly inconvenient and unacceptable to the US, hence the never-ending shite-stirring. Problem is world manufacturing, transport infrastructures and logistics all emanate from one country with little prospect of meaningful change for decades, if ever. Meanwhile the perfect storm of low investment, Covid, money printing, and own goals with the war have already stoked our inflation and interest rates to levels not seen for decades. What could possibly go wrong with decoupling?

I believe the US led initiative to contain China by weaponising high end semiconductors is too little too late. What the initiative will do, is to incense and turbocharge a society delivering 8 times more STEM graduates, and the world’s highest PISA rating. With the current state of play in technology, and a strategy not exactly finding favour with most countries, do you think our leaders have thought through which direction containment could end up applying in practice?

Two figures to bear in mind. EU is China's biggest export market (over 20%) and US is second biggest (over 18%). China is incredibly important in our global trade structure. They know it, and they know that their development has - and will - rely upon it. So diplomacy on both sides is critical hence the CEO meetings and the Chinese Ambassador to the EU really rowing back on that "limitless" Russian support. It is why I think that relationship between China and the West won't go full on "Russia" route. The symbiotic relationship is too important to both sides (at least for now) in a way that the Russian relationship never was (for either parties).

On China simply bypassing the sanctions with their own development. I don't for one minute doubt the ingenuity and ability of the Chinese tech industry. But they have a lot against them in the semiconductor game. Most importantly they don't have access to the advanced machines (made in Europe) for the most advanced semiconductors and that is the culmination of decades of development. They don't have a lot of the IP or the skillsets for the advanced fabs which Taiwan and the US have developed over decades. I am not saying China couldn't get there, I am saying they couldn't get there fast and the time required may be time they don't have if they were sanctioned like Russia.

Does it not insult your intelligence, when even a moron could tell time is on China’s side? Also in terms of incentive, unlike Xi the US wouldn't care less if Chinese ending up killing Chinese. The Palestinians have been in dire need of statehood and rescue from genocide for decades - why don't US/UK start there? You might want to watch this and then re-watch the documentary if you could stomach it – it might just open your eyes to how our propaganda against China works.

The point being made was that support for reunification is small and miniscule in the younger generations. Time is not on China's side for a peaceful reunification. As I said above, reunification by military means is not time dependent, but is the worst reunification route for China carrying massive risks.

What free pass? Do you mean the Russian gas pumping through Ukraine right now? Or are you talking about the energy merry go round via Asia?

US' and friends’ problem, is their highly selective outrage. It is doubly embarrassing when (like you?) they get on a high horse telling others off for not being as outraged as them, given US’ long list of war and other crimes, including in Cuba today, ironically.

Except for those who think history only began on 24/2/22, it is obvious Ukraine must bear responsibility for being a principal author of their tragedy. Anybody who disagrees should try this thought experiment - if your child must live in a lawless neighbourhood, would you want them to join one of the warring gangs?

That brings us to today’s news*: “US opposes offering Ukraine a road map to Nato membership”. “Nato in 2008 agreed that Ukraine would at some point become a member, but has not advanced that language since then. At that time, it was the US who called for Nato to grant Ukraine a concrete accession timetable”. So, psych them up for a fight, and now no path to membership without fighting to the last Ukrainian if necessary. You couldn’t make it up! The Taiwanese must be thrilled!

* if the paywall stops you just google "US opposes offering Ukraine a road map to Nato membership" from an incognito/private window of your browser and hit the ft link.

Ukraine is not the principal author of the tragedy. Putin is in deciding to invade and making monumental miscalculations on Ukraine's reaction to invasion, Russia's military and strategic capabilities and the West's reaction to the invasion. Ukraine is the author only in not becoming a vassal state to Russia like Belarus. And I am thinking that Lukashenko is on borrowed time which gets shorter with each passing month of the Ukraine war.

I couldn't read the FT link, but there are other reports of the US comments on Ukraine NATO roadmap. Poland and the Baltic states are massively hawkish over Russia (with good reason). But the major NATO powers such as Germany and Turkey are nowhere near on the same page. The last thing NATO countries need is massive disunity over controversial proposals that actually are meaningless until Ukraine / Russia war reaches a conclusion. No-one knows the outcome of this war and the political landscape at that time. Turkey (and Hungary, but Hungary is really unimportant in NATO whereas Turkey is a key member) took a big step in the Finland accession and will do so again with Sweden. The alliance may not hold such unity with a Ukraine roadmap being pushed. The US is being pragmatic. It isn't what Zelensky would want to hear, but it is a lot better for him that a disunited NATO.

My fundamental view is that Putin claims NATO and Europe to be an existential threat to Russia when it isn't. But Putin and Russia are absolutely an existential threat (at least at the moment) to Europe yet we try not to see it in such a bleak light as the implications of this are truly scary. But being scary doesn't mean it isn't true.

I don't think we will ever agree on anything with this! Which is good - it is good to be challenged. I don't for one minute diminish the malign effect the US has had on other countries. On the other hand, seeing all events through the lens of the US seems runs the danger of ignoring the malign effect of other powers such as Putin.
 

matticus

Guru
Ukraine war: Russian warplane accidentally bombs own city
... The bomb left a 20m (60ft) crater and caused an explosion so large it blew a car on to the roof of a nearby shop.
...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65344370

View: https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1649320079777988608


I had to laugh at the thorough journalism in this piece:
By morning maintenance workers had begun the work of repairing the busy intersection in Belgorod. The mayor said much of the work would take place at the weekend and the road would be resurfaced on Monday.
 

matticus

Guru
I'm reading a travel book based loosely around the "classic" Russian novelists.

Someone should write a mash-up of Crime and Punishment set in the Putin era, it seems like life for the regular (non-plutocrat) Russian has barely changed.
 
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AndyRM

Elder Goth
I'm reading a travel book based loosely around the "classic" Russian novelists.

Someone should write a mash-up of Crime and Punishment set in the Putin era, it seems like life for the regular (non-plutocrat) Russian has barely changed.

You could give Jonathan Daly's comparative history a go.
 

matticus

Guru
You could give Jonathan Daly's comparative history a go.

I think more than one book about Russia might drive me to alcoholism!
 
D

Deleted member 121

Guest
The media do have put a lot of time in writing about Putin's alleged ailments without writing too much on who might replace him, so that makes a change at least in that article. Putin's successor will take over if any of these events over his health appear to be true and continue the stalemate. Nikolai Patrushev, one of his closest allies and friends son, Dmitry Patrushev is favourite it seems. At 41 years old with more energy to devote to the cause than Putin, he could be dangerous for Europe and with his father saying recently that "the bloody events in Ukraine staged by the West" i don't have hope at all that things would improve in the event that Putin's health really is failing...
 
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