War with Russia

[dutchguylivingintheuk]

Although it is almost impossible to know what his real aims are, Putin knows full well that NATO will not directly intervene because Ukraine is not a member. IMO it may be, because of the stakes in terms of deaths and potential escalation, that it is a price the West, and more importantly, the unfortunate people of the Ukraine will have to pay, but we in the West will never be able to look the people of the Ukraine in the eyes again without a justified feeling of shame.

Yeah i also remember very well how Trump was, is lambasted the right word? for saying all NATO members need to pay up to keep they defense budget at par.. Nato is toothless i wonder why.. Apart from the fact that it is of course, taking all those ex-sovjet union states is mght not be the best idea.
But NATO and EU both seem to thing that quantity over quality is a good way to run a military alliance or future superstate..

The west already paid with deaths, all those poeple in MH17 for example, it's pinned on Russia but Ukraine was but an suspect and a partner in the research so that's a but fishy, just as they first claimed the radar(which could have shown where the plane has been shot from) was ''switched off for mainternance'' and later ''blown up or disabled by seperatist forces'' Now we come to speak of that why is the West so keen to interfere in a country, sign an association agreement with them even that is in an bloody conflict where the current ''legitimate'' goverment isn't free of sin either has a questionable mandate and similar questionable support from it's populations.. there was a time when a country needed to meet certain demands to jion the EU it seems that's all out of the window? Do we think that a good idea?

But if Russia does invade (and that is not a certainty, then NATO has to offer more than just passive support to Russia's neighbours who are members, and the US, UK and the EU and preferably all civilised countries should treat Russia as a pariah state using all the sanctions, financial and otherwise, that they can. European countries in particular will have to cease their reliance on Russian gas. It will be hard but to do otherwise will just encourage Russia.

It's a can of worms that can lead to much more deaths as you claim above because it will force Biden's hand who is looking at his approval ratings(or the lack thereoff) would be very keen to start a war to distract from inland issues.
Sanctions do not hurt Russia just as they do not hurt China if the was a reason to sanction them, the EU could force Ireland, Greece and other countries their way on the threat of sanctions(and with the result of more debt piles) but that's about it. Hell Russia send help to Italy during the pandemic because the EU was to slow, member states like Hungary went to Russia for a vaccine because it took to long.
The best thing the EU and Nato can do is get out of Ukraine void that association agreement set clear terms for them to join again an start fixing there own organistations first so that next time Russia play bully the NATO would actually be something to be afraid off. instead ot he laughing stock that it is now.

There are dangers in this, of course, as it will harden Putin's stance and probably strengthen Russian/Chinese links, but the option is to allow him to, by stealth, rebuild the USSR.

The world has become a much more unpredictable and dangerous place but the blame for this in recent years rests on Putin's Russia imo.

I don't known which world you have been watching but China and Russia are bff's i mean i don't think they can get any closer, and thanks to their deals with the Taliban, the militant fraction coming up for the Ulcher muslims is out of their way too now,
China in it's turn also want some countries back, or rather back on full control, so yes they world isn't particularly looking safer i have to agree unfortunately

 

[FishFright]

Flat feet and too old....
I didn't say I like it, but I think it's necessary if we want a more stable and wider 'Europe' until Putin's ousting/demise.
Otherwise, what really is the point of NATO or any armed forces other than that required for home defence?
If you want tyrants to take over more of the world, then acquiesce militarily...Afghanistan is a timely reminder.

Have you spoken with anyone you know in Ukraine this week?

Only 2 and that's online. They say it's business as usual with Russia , large number of troops have been there for the last few years.

 

[FishFright]

Ok, am none the wiser but better informed....

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rv85s_v3LKo&ab_channel=tfcoye

 

[Deleted member 49]

Suits Johnson to be banging the war drum...nothing in the media about Partygate and the corruption in his own goverment.
There was a time....

View: https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1495050051298770946?t=E5bMlMXfH3uVhu0xsce_Ew&s=19

 

[Rusty Nails]

Only 2 and that's online. They say it's business as usual with Russia , large number of troops have been there for the last few years.

So no extra Russian troops and vehicles at all, despite satellite pictures showing a huge build-up? Governments from around Europe and the US going to Moscow for talks for no reason? Putin not trying anything on at all, whether that be force, mischief or intimidation? People from Donetsk area being urgently evacuated to Russia because of " violence by Ukraine" - announced by a Ukrainian separatist leader Pushilin in a video recorded days earlier .
Nothing to see here, move on, it's all a plot to take people's minds off Boris's problems, besides Russia are a benign socialist democracy, aren't they, not oligarchies like the evil US and UK, so cannot possibly be in the wrong.
If Ukraine only had a nice democratically elected, pro-Russian poodle leader like that Lukashenko in neighbouring Belarus things would be so much better for them.

 

[FishFright]

So no extra Russian troops and vehicles at all, despite satellite pictures showing a huge build-up? Governments from around Europe and the US going to Moscow for talks for no reason? Putin not trying anything on at all, whether that be force, mischief or intimidation? People from Donetsk area being urgently evacuated to Russia because of " violence by Ukraine" - announced by a Ukrainian separatist leader Pushilin in a video recorded days earlier .
Nothing to see here, move on, it's all a plot to take people's minds off Boris's problems, besides Russia are a benign socialist democracy, aren't they, not oligarchies like the evil US and UK, so cannot possibly be in the wrong.
If Ukraine only had a nice democratically elected, pro-Russian poodle leader like that Lukashenko in neighbouring Belarus things would be so much better for them.

How many troops were on the border 6 months ago ? And 12 months ago ? How often and by how much does it usually change over the year ?

And most importantly how interested were you a couple of months back ?


I was asked if I'd had contact with locals and I have . I reported back what the people over there said to me .

 

[Rusty Nails]

How many troops were on the border 6 months ago ? And 12 months ago ? How often and by how much does it usually change over the year ?

And most importantly how interested were you a couple of months back ?


I was asked if I'd had contact with locals and I have . I reported back what the people over there said to me .

Nice deflection rather than answering any of the questions I raised.

I don't have any knowledge of the annual/seasonal variation of Russian troop movements along the border of Ukraine, do you? I admit to getting my information from news items and the fact that even the Russians admit the numbers are larger than normal because of major military exercises.

Why is it more important to know how interested I was a couple of months ago? Ukraine has never been a country right at the top of my interest list but I have always known about its historical links with Russia, and have been aware of the political issues there mainly since the Orange Revolution, the controversies over elections, the annexation of Crimea and the ongoing separatist battles in the Donbas region. The recent issues have just strengthened my interest because of the potential for increased and wider action. Is there a scale that can be applied about how far and wide interest should go back before having an opinion?

It is interesting what your two online contacts told you but, other than that, do you have any answers to, or views on, the points raised in my post?

 

[Rusty Nails]

Suits Johnson to be banging the war drum...nothing in the media about Partygate and the corruption in his own goverment.
There was a time....

View: https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1495050051298770946?t=E5bMlMXfH3uVhu0xsce_Ew&s=19

Johnson is an ar*ehole and an opportunist and it does currently help him that this is taking the heat off him, but what is going on in Ukraine is just a little bit important, no, scrap that it is hugely important, and as the leader of a major European country he has an obligation to speak about it and support Ukraine.

There are plenty of threads to have a go at Johnson and the Tories so it is just as opportunistic as he is being to use this thread for the same purpose.

 

[Deleted member 49]

Johnson is an ar*ehole and an opportunist and it does currently help him that this is taking the heat off him, but what is going on in Ukraine is just a little bit important, no, scrap that it is hugely important, and as the leader of a major European country he has an obligation to speak about it and support Ukraine.

There are plenty of threads to have a go at Johnson and the Tories so it is just as opportunistic as he is being to use this thread for the same purpose.

Not too long ago...2003 we welcomed Putin in the UK.Got the full treatment of Lizzie horse drawn carriage and gin at the Palace.

Nobody seemed bothered about the war against Chechnya then.It was Blair that supported Putin's election Well maybe the odd nut job like Corbyn might if been against it 🙄
Johnson takes money of Russia when it suits don't try and fecking lecture me on the morals of him...he hasn't any !

 

[Rusty Nails]

Not too long ago...2003 we welcomed Putin in the UK.Got the full treatment of Lizzie horse drawn carriage and gin at the Palace.









Nobody seemed bothered about the war against Chechnya then.It was Blair that supported Putin's election Well maybe the odd nut job like Corbyn might if been against it 🙄
Johnson takes money of Russia when it suits don't try and fecking lecture me on the morals of him...he hasn't any !

Rather than bring Blair and your obsession with Corbyn into this, what is your view of the actions of Russia in all this?

Your clip of a visit by Putin 19 years ago is an interesting bit of history but irrelevant in what is going on at the moment. It is not wrong to try to build good relations with and hopefully influence any country, but it is also not wrong to criticise and oppose them when they act as an aggressor.

Since that 2003 visit Russia has had a war with Georgia, annexed Crimea and is promoting/supporting separatist conflict in Donbas, and yes, the UK has been weak and greedy in its welcome to Russian money, but that is no excuse to almost ignore the plight of Ukraine in the rush to criticise the Tories. This thread is about Ukraine and Russia.

If you think I was lecturing you on Johnson's morals then I ask you to read the post again and show me exactly where I did. I have absolutely no liking for Johnson who is one of the worst PMs ever and agree with your opinion of him.

 

[Deleted member 49]

Since that 2003 visit Russia has had a war with Georgia, annexed Crimea and is promoting/supporting separatist conflict in Donbas, and yes, the UK has been weak and greedy in its welcome to Russian money, but that is no excuse to almost ignore the plight of Ukraine in the rush to criticise the Tories. This thread is about Ukraine and Russia.

UK PM johnsons says "if russia invades its neighbor...we will open up the matryoshka dolls of russian-owned companies and russian-owned entities, to define the ultimate beneficiaries within, [and sanction them.....
Except his party and himself have been taking money from the Russians when it suits ?
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/quarter-boris-johnsons-cabinet-took-25123091
As with most things I don't believe a word that comes out of his mouth....with good reason.

 

[Unkraut]

Your clip of a visit by Putin 19 years ago is an interesting bit of history but irrelevant in what is going on at the moment.

There has been similar footage of Putin addressing the Bundestag in German in 2004. He was still talking about cooperation and building the common European house back then, and most commentators tend to think this was genuine.

In the meantime this has changed, and the fledgling democracy in Russia is being increasingly stifled, with a partial return to the old Soviet mentality. Corruption and rule by oligarchs means a genuinely democratic uprising by the population could spell disaster for those currently in power.

The West hasn't been entirely innocent in these developments, but the expansion of NATO eastwards was in accord with the right of independent nations to choose any alliances they wish, something Russia signed up to. You could hardly blame the Baltic states for wanting the military security of NATO and the economic security of the EU.

Obama was very silly calling Russia a 'regional power', which was seen as insulting in Russia and has increased their wish to prove otherwise. That is partly what is going on now - the desire to be treated with respect. From the odd documentary I have seen the young in Russia sometimes support Putin to the extent that he refused to do what the US in particular would like to dictate.

I think Putin is going have great difficulty in settling this issue diplomatically and therefore without a war whilst simultaneously not losing face domestically.

 

[Rusty Nails]

UK PM johnsons says "if russia invades its neighbor...we will open up the matryoshka dolls of russian-owned companies and russian-owned entities, to define the ultimate beneficiaries within, [and sanction them.....
Except his party and himself have been taking money from the Russians when it suits ?
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/quarter-boris-johnsons-cabinet-took-25123091
As with most things I don't believe a word that comes out of his mouth....with good reason.

Like life, this thread is not all about Johnson.

Do you have any views on the Russia/Ukraine issue, or is that not as important as giving Johnson another kicking?

 

[Deleted member 121]

How many troops were on the border 6 months ago ? And 12 months ago ? How often and by how much does it usually change over the year ?

And most importantly how interested were you a couple of months back ?


I was asked if I'd had contact with locals and I have . I reported back what the people over there said to me .

There is certainly a build up. To what extent is harder to fathom. That level of build up currently reported however is expensive and hard to maintain, even on ones own soil. The infamous saying of "Amateurs talk tactics, but professionals study logistics" springs to mind...

What i can say, i do follow naval news and the fact as such a build up is harder to dispute. For example, Russian naval assets are/have been deployed to the Mediterranean from the Arctic and Pacific fleets, in quite purposeful naval groups. Particular to note are the Slava class cruisers for which the Russians operate three and all are in the Med.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBuTBMfK7pc


Of course, Russia would deny that it is doing anything wrong and technically, they are not. The UK sailed a fairly sizeable task force through the Med and Suez last summer to deploy to the pacific, however i think transparency is key and not something the Russians are particularly known for. With everything that is in place it would seem logical Russia have got their bases covered for an invasion, but whether they are playing on that Western media derived "bear" label to get what they want or actually plan to invade... Who knows. They have all the cards.

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

This is a thread about Russia not about China, which is just a deflection and, I believe, the subject of another thread

China a deflection? You think Russia see no parallel in their experience?

The world has become a much more unpredictable and dangerous place but the blame for this in recent years rests on Putin's Russia imo.

So we are the good guys and Putin the bad guy? Is there any doubt / cognitive dissonance, given "we" happen to be the one waging numerous wars killing and displacing millions, totally unnecessarily, over the past couple of decades?

Things are nearly never black and white, imho. For some balance, how about trying this and this.

I think the assessment including the conclusion given here is spot on.