General Election 2024....

[Bromptonaut]

An 'isolated' result that surprised me, was that of the Greens in Bristol Central, where Labour's Thangam Debbonaire
was beaten by over 10,000 votes . . . why ?

New seat, new boundaries. The seat, and it's predecessor(s) have been Green targets for several years.

 

[AuroraSaab]

Starmer's own vote went from 36k to 18k apparently. Majority down from 23k to 11k.
It's a landslide on paper but more and more it looks like a disillusioned electorate. All parties are going to have to work hard to win long term support.

 

[Bromptonaut]

Go on then, how are the Conservatives anywhere near left wing?

This should be a wild ride.

Without going down a left/right rabbit hole there's going to be a ding dong between consensus One Nation people, including probably Hunt, and the ERG type people led by Braverman.

The coming leadership election, if it's carried out under the current rules, is likely to have anybody from the latter subset elected by the membership.

One hopes that a new 1922 committee will consider whether those rules, given they saddled us with Johnson and then trumped that with Truss, are fit for purpose but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[Bromptonaut]

Starmer's own vote went from 36k to 18k apparently. Majority down from 23k to 11k.
It's a landslide on paper but more and more it looks like a disillusioned electorate. All parties are going to have to work hard to win long term support.

Islam and Gaza?

 

[Mr Celine]

Interesting comment on one of the TV programs this morning - they have a very reduced talent pool.

And like many other pools in the country it's now full of effluent.

 

[C R]

As I've been telling Corbyn's accolytes for years, you need seats to win an election, not votes. Starmer understands that, Corbyn doesn't.

Looking seat by seat, Starmer didn't do significantly better than Corbyn by votes. Labour got the seat because reform halved the tory vote. The only reason Corbyn didn't get similar results is that in 2019 the brexit party withdrew from seats where they would have hurt the tories.

 

[AuroraSaab]

Looking seat by seat, Starmer didn't do significantly better than Corbyn by votes. Labour got the seat because reform halved the tory vote. The only reason Corbyn didn't get similar results is that in 2019 the brexit party withdrew from seats where they would have hurt the tories.

Corbyn must be a bit gutted knowing Starmer's in No.10 with (what looks like it will be) fewer votes than he got.

Islam and Gaza?

I don't know the electoral make up of the Holborn seat but that seems plausible. It's quite a reduced majority.

 

[AndyRM]

 

[All uphill]

Any word on what seats Reform would have got under PR? I've always thought FPTP tends to limit extremist influence so I'd be interested to know.

Galloway out, Farage in. Swings and roundabouts on the electing idiots front.

Of course parties and people would vote differently in a different system.

Given the actual voting numbers I calculate the results (in seats) would look like this:

Lab 248
Con 168
Reform 103
LD 88
Green 47

 

[Beebo]

Corbyn who just won his seat, you mean?

There is no doubt that has fantastic local support as a constituency MP.
But he can’t project that support outside of Islington.

 

[ebikeerwidnes]

Left wing parties? Tories not right wing?
I must be living in a different country.

It depends on where you put the centre line

compared to the USA the Tories are lefty woketards!!

 

[AndyRM]

There is no doubt that has fantastic local support as a constituency MP.
But he can’t project that support outside of Islington.

I don't disagree, well, I kind of do, but it's old ground now and rehashing the reasons I believe he wasn't able to won't get us anywhere.

I good day for Labour, and a worrying/interesting one for the other parties.

 

[AuroraSaab]

Of course parties and people would vote differently in a different system.

True. The French seem to vote far right in the first round then row it back in the second. You can never tell how many votes are protest votes.

 

[Bromptonaut]

Corbyn must be a bit gutted knowing Starmer's in No.10 with (what looks like it will be) fewer votes than he got.



I don't know the electoral make up of the Holborn seat but that seems plausible. It's quite a reduced majority.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holborn_and_St_Pancras_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#/map/0

Holborn and St Pancras includes the 'mid city' area around Fitzrovia and Holborn itself including most of 'Legal London' which is the bit I know but it extends up to Camden and more or less the southern ned of Hampstead. Somers Town in particular comprises some large estates of social housing with a very mixed population many of Asian or African backgrounds. The Mosque probably features more now than in the past and some Imams in the area are quite 'hard line' on things like the headscarf and other codes of dress. A colleague who used to come to the office in jeans and a tee wasn't seen without her hijab and one piece robe garment (jilbab?) in more recent times.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

I think because the size of the reform vote was so unpredictable between constituencies and where they could win, the win tended to be very marginal. They don't have any "safe" seats.

And the party had no previous results to estimate variances between exit reporting and the actual vote. It seems like a fair few voters claimed to have voted for Reform when they hadn't. On a side issue, there seems to have been a big shift towards postal voting, possibly since Covid. I've no idea how they conduct an exit poll that takes account of voters who don't physically go out and vote. They can't exactly interrogate the envelopes.