The first Blue Labour electoral fallacy is that what worked in opposition will work in government.
I have agreed that this strategy makes sense in opposition, because the voters that make up Labour’s social liberal base would still vote for them where it mattered as the priority was to get the Conservatives out. It therefore helped Labour in oppositon to say things that might not put off more socially conservative voters from either voting Labour, or at least not voting Conservative to keep Labour out.
But I have also consistently argued that this strategy doesn’t work when Labour achieves power. (In December 24
I called it the politics of stupid.) That has been obvious in the polls for some time. Most of those socially conservative voters will not be happy with the record of whatever government is in power on issues like immigration and asylum, pretty well irrespective of what happens to immigration or asylum numbers. As a result, even if they didn’t vote
against Labour in 2024, they almost certainly will in 2029. The media will do their bit to ensure that happens. In contrast, social liberals who ignored what Labour said in opposition when voting Labour in 2024 would find it much more difficult to ignore actions when Labour is in government.