War with Russia

[Milzy]

Why would he think they’d welcome them with open arms? Nobody would get such shoddy intel. Also when they had a stuck convoy that went on for miles, why did they let them get away? Drones could have engaged them. It could have been the new road of death. If Putin won’t accept defeat then he’s going to use tactical nukes on the battlefield. The whole Wagner story stinks. Mercenaries know the risks. Take the money and fight or don’t be a mercenary. There’s lots of information we are not getting.

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

Both big powers are trying to increase their influence on Ukraine but only one country instigated the violence and is trying to stop ensure Ukraine's neutrality by invading it. Yes geopolitics is shite and very dangerous but in this one case only one country decided the best way to influence is by violence.

FTFY. Hope it is not a Freudian slip. Also violence started since Maidan.

At least we can agree it has been a disaster for Ukraine.

You ask what Zelensky should have done after the invasion, perhaps there were two possibilities.

First, there can be a Zelensky the Honest. Having the disaster on his watch by picking the biggest bully as ally, yet whom critically won't / can't let him "win", the Honest would admit to his people he should have followed neither bully gang, and they have died and displaced for naught. If he survives that, to stem the disaster, he would fly to Moscow to sue for peace with Minsk 2 as starting point. His bargaining power is considerable - he can help restore the lesser bully's relationship with Europe, which has many Eurbillion more reasons to agree than disagree; and the security of Europe, never mind US, was never capable of being threatened by the lesser bully in practice, let alone under imperial dominion. The biggest bully would be furious, but the Honest has actually helped them avoid another forever war, while doing them a huge strategic favour.

Alternatively, there can be a Zelensky the Hero. The war has been an unmitigated disaster, but the Hero rightly says the invasion was illegal, perhaps even unprovoked since he has every right to join any gang he likes. Hence it's a good vs evil fight, a presentation nevertheless best avoided while standing right next to the world's biggest and baddest bully. The fight is then cast as a matter of noblest principle, transcending all earthly pain and suffering, even if he knows he can never "win". A NYT profile of him just before the war paints a showman used to and drawn to adulation, by collecting sycophants - but perhaps it is pure coincidence that adulation is exactly what big bully's gang is showering him, while helping him fight the lesser bully to the last Ukrainian.

Your choice? And which one is the real hero?

 

[Rusty Nails]

showman used to and drawn to adulation, by collecting sycophants

Who are we talking about? Zelensky or Putin?

I would be satisfied with Zelensky the realist. There was an illegal invasion which led to a war which is a total disaster, and which can probably not be won decisively for a very long time, with many more hundreds of thousands of deaths on both sides, so he is persuaded to sue for peace, possibly with Minsk2 as a starting place.
Gives the lesser bully who still really yearns for the days when he was the bigger bully, before the bullied had revolted, a chance to magnanimously withdraw after telling his people how he had showed them nasty westerners that Russia is no pushover.

 

[Milzy]

The corruption of the West is on par with the Easts. I see Biden didn’t visit the chemical spill train crash so Trump did. USA needs to look after its own people and stay out of other Non NATO countries business.

 

[multitool]

Funny thing about this war is that as yet, no Russian civilians have been hurt. No Russian children killed, or even so much as a scratch. No Russian towns have been levelled. But according to RecordAce this war was about Russian survival.

Imagine, @RecordAceFromNew, that the girl in the blanket being thrown into the pit was your daughter, wife, sister, mum.

Would you be so glib in your approbation of Putin launching an unprovoked attack on a neighbouring country?

 

[AndyRM]

The corruption of the West is on par with the Easts. I see Biden didn’t visit the chemical spill train crash so Trump did. USA needs to look after its own people and stay out of other Non NATO countries business.
View attachment 3175

What on earth is any of this meant to mean?

 

[Rusty Nails]

What on earth is any of this meant to mean?

42.

 

[AndyRM]

42.

At least Douglas Adams made sense.

 

[albion]

With Trump back in the news for 'promoting Putin' it is worth looking back to his administration.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...reporter-part-of-unhinged-us-media-conspiracy.
I really do wonder how much Putin banked on a Trump re-election.

 

[the snail]

... A NYT profile of him just before the war paints a showman used to and drawn to adulation, by collecting sycophants...

A week later, the author of that profile said

View: https://twitter.com/olya_rudenko/status/1497162295981584409?s=20

 

[Milzy]

While Russians send in human zombie wave after human zombie wave into Bakhmut and wasting men by the tens of thousands Ukrainians are preparing something very big and very special. It might be an idea for young Russians to surrender and ask for Ukrainian citizenship and help re-build or die in the meat grinder.

 

[AndyRM]

While Russians send in human zombie wave after human zombie wave into Bakhmut and wasting men by the tens of thousands Ukrainians are preparing something very big and very special. It might be an idea for young Russians to surrender and ask for Ukrainian citizenship and help re-build or die in the meat grinder.

Go on then, what is this big and special thing that Ukraine has prepared?

 

[Milzy]

Go on then, what is this big and special thing that Ukraine has prepared?

Well thats what the main stream media propaganda says. Sounds amazing but all they are doing is lining up some fresh armour/infantry and expecting badly trained and inexperienced Russian cannon fodder to charge it then get pushed back.

 

[stowie]

Similarly, I think those who say Russia is weak (like you have), while believing Putin has imperial design (as you say) and therefore other Europeans are threatened if Russia is unprovoked should make up their mind which is true - what is obvious is such logically contradictory narratives do explain why all our foes must also be mad megalomaniacs. I also think it hard to reconcile someone who said "Anyone who doesn't regret the passing of the Soviet Union has no heart. Anyone who wants it restored has no brain." as a narcissistic expansionist (as you say you believe). A cornered beast more like, imho.

The two can be true at the same time. Russia has only shown to be weak because of its failure's in Ukraine - previously its military capability was thought to be very strong. Even Putin may have assumed this, as he may not have understood that it had been hollowed out by decades of corruption.

Putin believed that Ukraine would be unwilling and incapable of defending itself and NATO / West would grumble, add in some sanctions and continue as normal. And this belief had some justification after the invasion of Georgia, Crimea, Donbass along with using chemical weapons on UK soil, instigating massive cyber attacks against countries such as Estonia didn't really result in much that troubled Putin. It was a miscalculation on a massive scale.

I hope you don't mind me saying this since you often write thoughtful posts, but don't comments such as yours illuminate how emotionally invested so many here are in this fight, that they have lost the ability to look at the situation objectively? Of course Russian invasion of its weaker neighbour is immoral, but isn't the country leading the fight against them the biggest, most murderous bully on earth? So how is this a fight of good vs evil, and why not consider the likelihood (voiced by numerous senior Western security officials for decades) that if the world's biggest bully had left the lesser bully alone, and ensured Ukraine staying neutral militarily, the devastation today would not have happened?

I believe it was inevitable, and actually encouraged by the West's lack of response to previous aggressive acts by Russia. In the early 2000's Putin seemed to have no issue with NATO expansion - you can look up the quotes. NATO isn't the warsaw pact - democratically elected governments in Eastern Europe saw the threat from Russia long before the West and applied for membership. There weren't tanks rolling through the cities imposing this will on the people.

Regarding your latest post - I can't figure out from your train of thought whether you agree or disagree with me that the West can't let Ukraine "win". There was a superior Machiavellian possibility for the US - clue is China is a FAR stronger competitor than Russia. I have commented already re your belief of Russian imperialistic design. Regarding potential settlement, do try a thought experiment - if Minsk 1 or 2 had been fulfilled by Ukraine (i.e. not as a ruse by Ukraine signing them just to buy time as Merkel and Hollande said recently), would the war have happened?

I think the West is very concerned about escalation plus the massive logistics challenges with new weapons as I mentioned. Frankly, I think a Machiavellian grand strategy is giving a bit too much credit to the West's ability to agree and organise such a grand plan.

Fundamentally, I disagree with your reading of history, plus disagree with your belief that Putin would be serious about peace negotiations. Russia broke their agreement made with Ukraine to enable their nuclear disarmament. The "little green men" invasion was Russian forces controlled by Putin which gave a wafer thin deniability that they had broken the Budapest Memorandum. Ukraine was in a desperate state with expectations that Russia could overrun the entire country at the time of the Minsk negotiations. This is what was being talked about with Merkel - Ukraine needed to buy time to allow it to defend itself. The Russian / Russia aligned forces had no intention of ever having a ceasefire - at the time it wasn't in their interest as they were winning. The Maidan protests were supported by the West, but weren't instigated by them - it was a popular uprising when the Ukraine President reneged on election promises and turned back to Putin.

 

[AndyRM]

Well thats what the main stream media propaganda says. Sounds amazing but all they are doing is lining up some fresh armour/infantry and expecting badly trained and inexperienced Russian cannon fodder to charge it then get pushed back.

So, neither very big nor very special then?

Righto.