War with Russia

[FishFright]

Yes, the symptoms of the disease. The disease is nationalism, power, and longing for former ‘glories’.

The Brexit thread is over there ->

It's a common disease at the moment and no doubt more virulent than Covid.

 

[Cirrus]

Everyone can make a contribution to the war effort: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60553124

 

[Johnno260]

I am very, very far from any type of military strategist. However....

This assumes that Putin's game plan from the start was a quite long and protracted siege type war.

Is it not more likely that Putin's assumption was for the Ukraine government to collapse quickly, with the armed forces in disarray against a fast moving Russian army? That then Putin could install his puppet government so quickly that the West wouldn't have a chance to respond? That Ukraine citizens would accept the new status quo?

If Putin does manage to encircle the major cities, then what? He tries to starve them into submission like Sarajevo? He sends in troops to the cities for urban warfare? Neither look great options, and with both Russia will be put under more and more sanctions with the west pouring in aid and military hardware for a Ukraine army that is still functioning.

Putin has been in power for around 20 years (with a "gap" where he was driving from the back seat). He probably doesn't have people around him to tell him his plan is a really shoot one. He may have made a huge misjudgement on the response likely from the West plus the response from both Ukraine military and civilian populations. The EU, UK and US are pouring in arms and money - including fighter jets and armour piercing rockets. Does Putin have time on his side?

I think that's a fair assessment, he went for a blitzkrieg type offensive and wanted this done and dusted quickly.

They seem to have vastly overestimated their ability or underestimated the Ukrainians will to fight.

Issue is the last few times Russia has been involved in actions, they basically bullied their way through.

Edit: The Russians seem to be losing armor at a horrific rate, seems those portable anti armor weapons are working as intended.

 

[cookiemonster]

 

[fozy tornip]

I am very, very far from any type of military strategist...

I thought we're none of us ever further than six feet from the nearest military strategist?
Hang on, no, that's rats.
As you were.

 

[matticus]

I thought we're none of us ever further than six feet from the nearest military strategist?

They're more numerous than curling experts now.

 

[theclaud]

I thought we're none of us ever further than six feet from the nearest military strategist?
Hang on, no, that's rats.
As you were.

It's not a problem, as long as they don't get inside the house.

 

[fozy tornip]

Latest is they can tread water for three days.

 

[Deleted member 121]

Goodness. Untangling the confusion of issues your brought up would frankly not be a good use of my time. What I would say, is if you must bring morality into a discussion of a realpolitik decision by Putin to show your rage or collect some likes then by all means, but doesn't your response feels a bit rubbish to you, given you invited me to comment on his motivation, to which I suggested and provided a link to a carefully analysed and fully explained reason, then you call it pish/apologist because your reason why he "wants this war" is.... actually you can't say... "it is locked into his own mind!"?

That's what you do not understand. I don't think there is ANY reason to invade a sovereign country, in this day and age. We apparently will never agree on that... Untangling confusion is a hilarious hypocritical statement.

In that article,

Rob Lee doesn't mention in any of his Russia's military options that shelling residential areas is a factor in getting what Russia want, but that is what happened today.

Interestingly, He even suggests Russia doesn't want Ukraine aligned with NATO and quotes Putin in saying “I am confident that true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia,” Then Dmitri Medvedev "two weeks after the Ukrainian indigenous peoples bill was adopted. Medvedev referred to Ukraine’s leadership as "vassels" and argued that further talks with Kyiv were pointless.

What an advert for Ukrainians, and then they invade...

Again, i will say, Ukraine have not acted without miscalculation and misunderstanding, but to me it is clear, Russia see all of Ukraine as theirs...

I hope we are not at the beginning of a new change of direction in this war, We have seen Russia in recent times shell cities to the ground, Grozny was subject to sustained and repeated artillery barrage that killed up to 8000 people, following its encirclement. I don't doubt Russia's shameless leaders would do this again... I wonder if Apologists then might find display some humanity?

 

[Johnno260]

They have also had cluster munitions deployed in urban areas, those things are abhorrent.

https://www.amnesty.org.uk/press-re...-child-and-two-other-civilians-taking-shelter

 

[Hitchington]

Rule Britannia

A Ukrainian woman and her 15-year-old diabetic daughter say they are feeling increasingly distraught after escaping the conflict in Ukraine only to be blocked from a visa the UK government announced on Sunday evening for which they are eligible.

Yakiv Voloshchuk, 60, a British citizen, rescued his wife, Oksana Voloshchuk, 41 and their daughter, Veronika Voloshchuk, from Poland on 26 February.

He drove from his home in London to the Polish border and waited for them to get across Ukraine’s border with Poland. He then did a return 24-hour journey by road across Europe before reaching Paris on Sunday where he hoped he would get the green light from British officials to bring his wife and daughter on the last leg of the journey to the UK.

The family hoped it would be straightforward to reach the UK, especially after the publication of new Home Office guidance giving permission for some immediate family members of British citizens to apply free of charge to join their loved ones in the UK.

But when Oksana and Veronika tried to apply for the new visa online they were blocked from proceeding unless they paid thousands of pounds, even though the application is supposed to be free.

“We just don’t know what to do,” Voloshchuk told the Guardian on Monday morning. “My wife’s bank account in Ukraine is frozen. We have booked into a hotel in Paris for a couple of days but I want to bring my family back to the UK to my home in London.

“We are getting very worried about my daughter because she is type 1 diabetic and is running out of insulin. We also don’t have a lot of money for food. She needs to eat regularly.”

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

Yes, the symptoms of the disease. The disease is nationalism, power, and longing for former ‘glories’.

I take it you say these are Putin's disease. While the first two are undoubtedly true (but don't they apply to pretty much all leaders of all countries), the only important one i.e. the last does not pass the smell test - nothing Putin could ever do, short of capturing half a dozen NATO countries, will ever achieve former glory, will it? I believe Putin is, in his mind, rationally in my view, fighting an existential threat for Russia, for the reason I offer below.

The Russian government may feel their future tenure is threatened but their borders have not been breached by foreign military action for eighty years, have they?

That's what you do not understand. I don't think there is ANY reason to invade a sovereign country, in this day and age. We apparently will never agree on that...

Setting military attack up to be a necessary condition for an existential threat and therefore war, is a suitable rule for the school playground. But here, it is frankly naive. You should take a look at what gave rise to the colour revolutions and Arab Springs. Then tell me, for so many of those in the last two decades, which has delivered health and prosperity to their citizens? The bitter truth, is nearly all if not all came off worse, some much worse. See this and this.

Yet, this is exactly what the US and its poodles continue to push, so what if the people are going to die and go hungry, it can't hurt if every other foreign country is balkanised, can it?

Actually you don't even need to look beyond your own backyard to get a feel. United Your Kingdom is sadly going that way soon enough.

I am very, very far from any type of military strategist. However....

This assumes that Putin's game plan from the start was a quite long and protracted siege type war.

Is it not more likely that Putin's assumption was for the Ukraine government to collapse quickly, with the armed forces in disarray against a fast moving Russian army? That then Putin could install his puppet government so quickly that the West wouldn't have a chance to respond? That Ukraine citizens would accept the new status quo?

If Putin does manage to encircle the major cities, then what? He tries to starve them into submission like Sarajevo? He sends in troops to the cities for urban warfare? Neither look great options, and with both Russia will be put under more and more sanctions with the west pouring in aid and military hardware for a Ukraine army that is still functioning.

Putin has been in power for around 20 years (with a "gap" where he was driving from the back seat). He probably doesn't have people around him to tell him his plan is a really shoot one. He may have made a huge misjudgement on the response likely from the West plus the response from both Ukraine military and civilian populations. The EU, UK and US are pouring in arms and money - including fighter jets and armour piercing rockets. Does Putin have time on his side?

I am sure I am a worse military strategist than you are.

If the encircling holds, my understanding is that it would be very difficult for foreign arms to smuggle through, especially to the East and it is a huge country. Putin achieved air superiority earlier today I believe.

It is the Western mass media that says it takes 3 days and the same mass media that says voila Putin must be in trouble without holding Kyiv by day 3. With vastly superior firepower and zero regard for destruction and deaths of brown uncivilised people, I believe all the Iraqi cities still stood after 5 days when US/UK attacked. It took Hitler 13 weeks to take Ukraine.

Regarding what next, I imagine Putin considers it preferable to starve rather than to shoot armed civilians in cities to submission, and e.g. 45,000 Ukranian troops, likely including most of the neo-nazi brigades, are encircled in Donbas per map below, and they might get eliminated by air or bombardment if Zelensky does not comply with some cast iron Minsk II+ conditions, which none of the successive democratic (i.e. blindly nationalistic) Ukrainian governments post coup was wise enough to accept, because it wouldn't have been popular.

Actually, one of the reasons why non-elected governments can be more peaceful and stable is because they have zero incentive to be self-harmingly nationalistic, something few liberal-democrats would cross their mind, but unfortunately a lesson Ukraine is paying a very high price to learn. I can tell you China e.g. has every reason to become virulently nationalistic with foreign policies to match if it became a liberal democracy - we should be VERY careful what we wish for.

I would have thought Putin has all the time in the world, they certainly have had long enough to plan this. That is of course not to say he is not paying a high, or perhaps even the ultimate price ultimately, or would want to stay a minute longer than he has to.


View: https://twitter.com/miladvisor/status/1498048463510065152

 

[glasgowcyclist]

A story tucked away in local news on the BBC tells how a Russian tanker is due to dock at Scapa Flow *tomorrow* to be filled with crude oil. Scotland's government and the local council in Orkney are powerless to stop this without intervention from the Westminster government.

This ship should not be allowed in our waters, even less allowed to take on crucial supplies for Russian benefit.

Please, wherever you are in the UK, contact your MP and demand immediate action to deny this ship, and any other Russian vessels, access to our ports.

There is a petition here, https://www.change.org/p/stop-russian-owned-trade-vessels-docking-in-uk-ports?

Hopefully, in the event the Tories bottle it, the local port workforce will refuse to facilitate the access or loading.

We need a repeat of #NaePasaran.

Local Orkney paper story here, https://www.orcadian.co.uk/petition-to-halt-russian-tankers-flotta-visit-goes-live/

 

[Hitchington]

What a Clown!

I see your little lap dog is happy to have you back.

 

[Hitchington]

View attachment 811

I'm still at a loss as to how a traitor to the UK like Patel who went behind the back of the PM to try to make a deal With a foreign government has ended up as home secretary with the power to decide who quite literally lives in safety or suffers in a refugee camp. Utter madness.