War with Russia

[Moodyman]

There will be no nuclear exchange. It's nothing more than sabre-rattling and to ward off US intervention. Putin's taken a leaf out of the US book - US threatened nukes in the Korean and Vietnam wars to a) limit external involvement (USSR & China) and b) pressure the N Koreans and Vietcong to agree to cessation on US terms.

Russia had warned they would destroy Ukraine as a functioning state well over a decade ago if the US sought to bring it into the EU/NATO camp, so we shouldn't be surprised by what's going on today.

As @Ian H pointed upthread, it's interesting that the condemnation of Russia is largely from Western nations whilst much of the rest of the world has been muted. Even Israel, a staunch US ally, had to be arm-twisted to vote in support of the UN resolution.

 

[FishFright]

The first statement is undoubtedly true, and that is why there is no actual intervention against Russia, other than by the country they are trying to destroy.

As far as the second paragraph it just seems to be a continuation of the "West is wrong" rhetoric. No mention of Putin trying to impress the West by playground posturing and by getting his proverbial dick out first, which does tend to show he is impressed by shows of dickmanship.

There must be a continuation of talk and sanctions up until the point that Putin gets so emboldened by the military "success" of his war that he tries a similar thing with another one of his neighbours on some other self-defensive pretext, at which point appeasement may be seen not to be working and there will possibly need to be military action short of nuclear war. The clear danger in that is who knows if it will stop there.

Sanctions will work, up until a point, at which time China will bail Russia out by increasing support and trade to them to counteract the loss of trade with the West.

Let us get some things straight here... It is Russia who are the aggressors, using attacks on civilians, including hospitals, using siege tactics on cities, using cluster bombs and thermobaric bombs. But it seems sometimes as if, other than some weasel words about Putin as an individual being evil, it seems OK to blame the amorphous "west", despite no country of the west having attacked Russia, and there is no acceptance that something may be wrong with the way Russia goes about its activities or that their political systems have failed.

P.s. I happen to have lived through the Cold War and remember the real threat of nuclear war with the Cuban missile crisis and have no wish for me, my kids or my granddaughter to go through that again which is why talking must go on, with both sides actually listening and engaging.

I'm no fan of Putin ! The talk here is what we , ie the West, should and can do to bring this conflict to an end. Escalation through military escalation will have only have one end and it won't be a Russian retreat.

Both sides are in the midst of a Nationalistic breakdown so once started I believe it's inevitable that full on war will follow.

In addition the idea that Putin will be cowed by willy waving is Brexit level wishful thinking.

China is not Russia's unswayable ally so don't think they will automatically back Russia in a conflict with the West. Simplistic cold war thinking saw two red flags so assumed both systems and political cultures were similar, this has never been true and relations between them are tense at the best of times.

Sadly there are too many farkwits around who still believe there' s any kind of victory to be gained from a thermo-nuclear war and seemingly don't seem to care that means the death of everyone they know , including their children.

So this ONLY leaves jaw jaw because the alternative is a huge war and there's no way back from there.

 

[FishFright]

seems a reasonable assessment to me.... but... what if that doesn't work?

We are all dead.

 

[BoldonLad]

Have you forgot that the invention of the Hydrogen bomb has made war between the The US and Russia , we are mere bystanders , impossible ?
There is NO positive outcome possible with military intervention against Russia and especially Putin.

All you hawks really think if the West gets its' proverbial dick out Putin will be so impressed he'll shuffle back to silly little country with his tail between his legs ? I think you lot never got passed playground posturing and apply that same pathetic logic to the grown up world because that's all you truly understand.

Pathetic

Who is calling for war? Most certainly not me. But, there is the possibility that things will escalate, IMHO, most likely by “accident”.

Like others on here, I am old enough to remember the “Cold War”, and, most definately have no wish to go back there, but, it wasn’t me who invaded a neighboring Country.

I am an optimist however. I am busy Re-decorating a room. Ran out of paint, I thought “is it worth buying another tin, given what is happening in Ukraine?”, decided it was 😊

 

[BoldonLad]

We are all dead.

I do like an optimist 😊

 

[FishFright]

This is what our homeland has become


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAblAQENQhE&ab_channel=TheNewYorkTimes

 

[Rusty Nails]

I'm no fan of Putin ! The talk here is what we , ie the West, should and can do to bring this conflict to an end. Escalation through military escalation will have only have one end and it won't be a Russian retreat.

Both sides are in the midst of a Nationalistic breakdown so once started I believe it's inevitable that full on war will follow.

In addition the idea that Putin will be cowed by willy waving is Brexit level wishful thinking.

China is not Russia's unswayable ally so don't think they will automatically back Russia in a conflict with the West. Simplistic cold war thinking saw two red flags so assumed both systems and political cultures were similar, this has never been true and relations between them are tense at the best of times.

Sadly there are too many farkwits around who still believe there' s any kind of victory to be gained from a thermo-nuclear war and seemingly don't seem to care that means the death of everyone they know , including their children.

So this ONLY leaves jaw jaw because the alternative is a huge war and there's no way back from there.

Luckily I never said you were a fan of Putin.

Putin may not be cowed by a show of nuclear strength, but there is no doubt it impresses him as shown by his keenness to show it himself. We just have to hope it is just for a show of strength, on both sides, just like Putin's homo-erotic bareback riding.

I am not fooled by the red flags as neither of those countries have been socialist for a long time. They are both totalitarian regimes that hold their people in ignorance and contempt, controlling the information they get and giving them little or no say in what sort of governments they want, and to that extent they have a lot in common and are loathe to criticise each other as shown in the Chinese lack of condemnation of the atrocities in Ukraine. I have no doubt also that they are both wary of each other.

There would be no victors in a nuclear war and, distasteful as it may seem, you sometimes have to talk to tyrants because the other option is too awful to consider.

 

[Fab Foodie]

Can someone here come-up with a war-stopping jaw-jaw scenario that might bear scrutiny?

 

[qigong chimp]

Letter from the Graun, worth taking the time:

When he says that Britain and Russia are much more alike than either would care to admit, Martin Kettle makes a telling point: both were great imperial powers and both have struggled to adapt to their relative decline (Rupture is not an option: after this war, the west must learn how to live with Russia, 10 March).

The European age of empire that first convulsed and then transformed the world in 1914 finally culminated in the horrors of the Third Reich and the Soviet Union, not least in the blood-drenched lands of Ukraine and Belarus. For Vladimir Putin, the revanchist wars in Chechnya, Georgia, the Crimean peninsula and Ukraine appear part of a desire to reverse-engineer a Russian empire, using brute force to recreate a mythological past that has come to obsess him. A different path is embodied in the EU, and it is one that Volodymyr Zelenskiy craves for Ukraine. In contrast to the dead end of empire, European integration promises a commonwealth of independent nations rooted in consent, democracy, shared values and mutual cooperation in return for a degree of pooled sovereignty.

Britain, cheered on by such Putin admirers as Nigel Farage and Donald Trump, has chosen to reject this postimperial model (one that has brought peace, prosperity and stability to Europe) in favour of its own sepia-tinged, nostalgia-driven version of a distant global past. What an irony, then, that Boris Johnson now appears to support Ukraine’s bid for EU membership, having so enthusiastically pulled the UK out of the same organisation with the hardest of hard Brexits.
John Bailey
Farnborough, Hampshire

 

[mjr]

And it's a moot point, but we're already at war, WW3 is underway, any other description is dancing on a pin.. We might not have fired a bullet, but, training, arming and supporting Ukraine with weapons, economic warfare, and no doubt cyber-warfare against Russia is still war.

We're a long way short of having most of the world's countries at war with each other. WW3 may be underway, but I think it's too soon to call it such. Let's hope it's not, especially if Einstein's 1947 prediction would be accurate: "I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."

 

[FishFright]

Can someone here come-up with a war-stopping jaw-jaw scenario that might bear scrutiny?

Nearly every war ,near war and every period of international tension ends with talking so why not skip the bits you lot get so excited about and get around that table straight away ? Much better than all this petty posturing .

I think you're actually loving all this swaggering about military action there is zero percent is going to involve your boots on the ground.

Is this going to lead your Paley Moment ?

 

[Unkraut]

It"s not what I want, just my cold analysis of the situation - one borne of NATO and the liberal west taking it's eye off the ball and an opinion formed after many years spent travelling to, and working in Russia.

I think your post was a classic example of a man with experience is not at the mercy of a man with an argument (or ideology).

Taking the eye off the ball - even from this side of the Channel it seems to me 'austerity' Cameron shoved through defence reviews with the aim of reducing military budgets whilst simultaneously Putin was using his earnings from natural resources to upgrade his dilapidated defence forces.

The Germans have been in even more of a fantasy world, seeming to believe that with the fall of the iron curtain we could now embark upon a new world of love and peace. The Greens in particular seem to have taking this fantasy on board. The upshot of this is successive govts of all hues have let the state of defences in central Europe decline to a level inadequate for a genuine defence, under the motto of saving money. The awakening with Putin's attack has been dramatic to say the least.

The economic and military policies of western Europe over the last 20 years in effect now ensure that the West cannot even contemplate any military intervention in the Ukraine. It is beyond pathetic that the current foreign minister here Annalena Baerbock has been spending over the last 4 years time worrying about fake feminine plurals for nouns and getting rid of generic he whilst Putin has been following a carefully planned and announced attempt to extinguish the Ukraine from the map. She, along with many western politicians, are now jumping up and down with impotent rage at what Putin has been doing.

In the end a peace conference will have to decide the future of Russian/Ukrainian relations, but the influence of the West in such talks will necessarily have to reflect a weakened position. I suspect much of the money for rebuilding will come from the West whereas it should come from Russian reparations. Time will tell.

 

[Rusty Nails]

Nearly every war ,near war and every period of international tension ends with talking so why not skip the bits you lot get so excited about and get around that table straight away ? Much better than all this petty posturing .

I think you're actually loving all this swaggering about military action there is zero percent is going to involve your boots on the ground.

Is this going to lead your Paley Moment ?

I thought that Russia and Ukraine have been round a table several times since the invasion with no progress. France and Germany, who are co signatories of the Minsk agreement have also sat around a table....or more accurately at the end of a very long table with Putin to try to resolve the situation before it started. I will quickly pass over our esteemed Foreign secretary's attempt at discussion with Russia. This is not to say that a lot more doesn't need to be done to start some meaningful dialogue with both sides listening and not just demanding.

Incidentally, you are starting to sound like our Wolverhampton correspondent with your use of the words 'you lot'.

 

[dutchguylivingintheuk]

I thought that Russia and Ukraine have been round a table several times since the invasion with no progress. France and Germany, who are co signatories of the Minsk agreement have also sat around a table....or more accurately at the end of a very long table with Putin to try to resolve the situation before it started. I will quickly pass over our esteemed Foreign secretary's attempt at discussion with Russia. This is not to say that a lot more doesn't need to be done to start some meaningful dialogue with both sides listening and not just demanding.

Incidentally, you are starting to sound like our Wolverhampton correspondent with your use of the words 'you lot'.

That's correct, 3 times in/on the border of Belarus, one time in Turkey and Isreal's pm traveled to both Russia and Ukraine to try and solve matters. The problem is Russia sees Ukraine as a county instead of a country so they think they have an say in what a independent country does and does not. they should just get the F out and stay out. But i don't think they will do that.

 

[FishFright]

I thought that Russia and Ukraine have been round a table several times since the invasion with no progress. France and Germany, who are co signatories of the Minsk agreement have also sat around a table....or more accurately at the end of a very long table with Putin to try to resolve the situation before it started. I will quickly pass over our esteemed Foreign secretary's attempt at discussion with Russia. This is not to say that a lot more doesn't need to be done to start some meaningful dialogue with both sides listening and not just demanding.

Incidentally, you are starting to sound like our Wolverhampton correspondent with your use of the words 'you lot'.

I use 'you lot' to show how low I hold those attitudes in esteem and boy it is very very low.

Put it this way it's way lower than even Brexiteers .